VPIP and PFR debate in Poker Calculators

Phaedrus, JP and Mattywein debate some new features that extrapolate deeper VPIP and aggression measurements in poker calculators.

I note your enthusiasm for this feature Matty. If I understand it correctly, you would like a 20 percent, or 30 percent hand range broken down into probable holdings and your hole cards matched up against say the average of that range.

Its a nice idea but I really think it will create too much techo reliance and lead to some pretty bad reads. For example the program would need to take into account position and action in front, Mzone probably ICM the looseness
, tightness and stack sizes of the players behind just to name a few variables. By the time you had reliable data with all these variables your opponent will most likely have died of old age.

Mostly I think of VPIP this way.

A sub 20 percent range is incredibly tight. The are playing big pairs and big cards and maybe most pocket pairs. The may play some suited connectors but not many. These guys are easy to read post flop and its great to be in pots with them because you won't lose much.

A 25 to 35 percent range is much more dangerous. These guys are playing quality cards with just enough suited connectors in the mix that any flop can help them.

Over 35 percent is still dangerous to play against. The individual player is playing too many hands and will most likely be a losing player over time. But they can have pretty much anything in their hand and so its very hard to read them correctly, particularly if they are also aggressive. Best approach is mostly to trap the before the flop or on the flop.

But notwithstanding all of that, you need to be mindful, especially in sit and go tournaments about what blind pressure is doing to players ranges. This is why this particular program feature would not be helpful to my game. Tight players know to loosen up when the pressure is on and their game will change dramatically

If you tracked me over a SnG you would find I am a rock or TAG at the start and a maniac at the end....virtually every tournament.

In an multi-table poker tournament online you will quite often track me as a maniac or calling station at the start and then Tag in the middle, maniac at the end. Or depending on stack sizes, maybe a rock at the end. Its all situation dependent.

A much more reliable read of peoples ranges is their stack size at the time. Small stack almost always = big range. Big stack can mean different things though.

One other observation is that I use Poker Office for my cash games at Pacific. The HU display put numbers all over the screen (quite distracting really) I can select which numbers I want to see from a massive list of indicators. But at the end of the day, VPIP, pre flop raise percentage, post flop aggression, went to showdown and win at showdown together tell a very accurate and complete story. I really don't care about how often someone steals blinds or how well they defend their blinds. Blinds are minuscule compared to stacks. I'd rather have the info that allows me to make the best decision for a 100 big blind bet than a poultry 1.5BBs

In tournaments blind steal and defense stats are also pretty meaningless. It all depends on the size of the blinds and the size of the stacks. most all players are thieves when under pressure and you soon learn how well the guys on your left defend without needing a calculator.

-----

I disagree with this. I think those stats are valuable and when reviewed in combination with other stats and the current situation can reveal a lot about the player and what they may be doing in that situation.

For just one example "defense", not sure what number you look at for that but I look at PFRR (pre flop re raise) AND combine it with pfrr-W$SD which means IF they pfrr then they W$SD If they don't win at showdown often when they pfrr then it tells me they pfrr too much and are more likely to defend with a weak hand so their re raise to me has a high probability of being a defensive re steal. Granted, EVERYTHING else about that hand, that player, the actions leading to that moment, stack sizes, the hands leading up to this etc... will ALL play a role in what happens and the decision making process. But stats, when used correctly, are a tremendous aid to a player in order to "play the player" when you can't simply play your cards. (how often they fold to steal bets in bb and sb are main defense stats but they don't play a part in this particular example unless they have high fold but this time are re raising and they have low re raise or hi win if pfrr. Then I fold)

-----

I hear what you are saying JP and agree with it at a theoretical level. The problem for me in practice is that there is a pretty small window in a tournament when blind steals and defense are either not a waste of time (ie. blinds are too small) or not pot committing (i.e blinds are so large any raise pot commits you and your opponents reaction is irrelevant).

I have had quite a few players tell me I am a blind thief at the table. When I tell them I have just had a run of good cards, several have then told me about my Poker Edge or Crusher stats. Apparently these must show I raise a lot from steal positions (which I do)

The problem is that this is not necessarily stealing, it is just correct position play. I play a wider range in late position and I typically open raise. But I almost always am playing solid hands for my position. So I really don't know whether that qualifies as stealing...to me is just seems more like pressurizing aggressive play

-----

Phaedrus I totally agree with you on this point, BUT

This statement sort of misses the point I was making. You are still relying on the 2 figures to make your judgment and you have to compensate due to other players inflection points and M values. The figure I'm after would give BEGINNERS a better understanding of where they would be in the hand and what the odds would be against the players range. You're still relying on a figure either way and making a judgment on that and all the other factors mentioned.

I do think this would be difficult to implement though, but only because a pro's 30% range would be a lot different to a beginners, Plus the math would probably be mind blowing. Confused Confused...