Friday, October 03, 2008

Interpreting the Aggression Factor in Poker Calculators

The Aggression factor used in poker calculator software is a valuable profiling measurement that you can use to strategize against your opponent whether it be high or low. Aggression Factor, or AF, is a actually a ratio, not a percentage which describes the nature of a player's betting tendencies, and it’s important to know how the AF is actually determined and what it really means.

So let’s start here: The formula for determining AF = ((bets + raises) / calls ) . So an Aggression Factor of 1.0 implies that the person makes bets equal to the mount of times he calls, which is a relatively balanced and flexible marker.

In general, if you see an opponent’s AF dropping consistently below .75, you can surely consider him to be a passive player, but being too passive isn’t normally a good strategy in poker. An AF over 1.5 might be considered an aggressive player, but you still have to monitor this over a matter of time.

So what if an opponent has a relatively high aggression factor, like for example 2.5 or 3.5 and the person bets or raises post-flop? How are you supposed to know the person has the strength they represent with their bet or raise? This would be a much easier answer from someone with a passive aggression factor less than .75 because an opponent who has been checking/calling, and then suddenly bets/raises, is more than likely to actually have the strength they represent.

To clarify though, high aggression factor on your poker calculator only tells you that your opponent rarely calls, it doesn't tell you anything about how often he bets/raises. So you still are not going to "know" one way or another if he is strong. The frequency of certain aggressive traits indicates a range of hands and a style of play of your opponent. Since you still cannot determine if any one particular hand of his is strong, it will eventually come down to risk, probabilities, tournament stage and structure.

Playing against such a player often puts you in the difficult conundrum of re-raising or folding, and a lot of that depends on your counter strategy and plan of attack against him, and that it makes sense for your situation in the tournament and bankroll. You cannot guess what they have, but you can be reasonably assured of being ahead when you NEED to be ahead.

You can also use smaller re-raises on the flop and turn to further determine if your opponent actually has something. If he hasn’t given up on the hand, his hole card strength is presumably better than normal and has possibly gotten help from the board. However if your poker tournament strategy situation is critical, Red or Orange, getting it in against this type of player with one of your medium strength hands is an excellent strategy.