Phaedrus75 did a better job of describing my own video, than I did myself.
I have only just gotten around to watching this, and I thought it warranted forum discussion.
In the video Marty shows 2 hands, the first being an all-in with middle pair and a flush draw (K8s) and the second is folding pocket kings to board with 2 Aces and a flush draw.
The two hands are diametrically opposite in terms of risk tolerance, but IMO were both perfectly played.
The K8s hand, Marty has an M of 24.5. He has a lowish table Q and I would expect that his tournament Q is probably pretty low as well.
He gets to see a free flop from the BB with K8s and flops middle pair and a flush draw.
In the video, Marty describes how he was feeling, it was late at night, he had a mindset of double up or go to bed and chose to ignore GCI and let it ride with this hand (which has to be said is a very strong hand on the flop).
I think the most important discussion point in this decision is not so much about green Mzone IMHO, but about poker tournament equity.
Despite his green M, the field is starting to get away from him at this point. The next blind increase will leave him with a yellow stack. He will have then lost the opportunity to play many potential double up type hands such as suited connectors and small pocket pairs. He must then wait for big pairs and AK / AQ type hands or potentially a few re-shoves over limpers.
When he plays these hands from a yellow M, he would be aiming to playing for his whole stack. He therefore MUST win those hands and must not get sucked out on. He must also leave it to pure chance that he will get a playable hand in yellow M before his stack dwindles further and the rest of the field pulls further ahead.
In terms of tournament equity, this situation is not very encouraging. Sure, he may come back sometimes, but to reach a stack size equivalent of what he would win by shoving the K8s hand (and to have that stack size match what his Q would have been by winning the K8s hand) he needs a mini-miracle. Certainly I would estimate that the chances of the come back happening are way less than 50/50.
So instead of waiting for that to occur, Marty takes a 50/50 poker odds chance with his still viable stack. IMO shoving (or in this case calling) the draw was significantly better in terms of tournament equity, than folding to live on to fight another day.
Marty says it was uncharacteristically LAG play which made him get all his chips in with a draw. Maybe it is a bit loose, but when you consider his standing in the poker tournament at the time the hand occurred, versus if he wins this coin flip (and and lets not forget coin flip was about the worst case) then IMHO it is an insta-push or insta call every time (not just late at night).
I have been toying around with the idea that Mzone needs some adjustment for on-line tournaments to account for the speed of the blinds (even in non-turbo MTTs) as well as loose players.
Mzone has been a concept which has been around for decades. It was first given a name by Paul Magriel of backgammon fame in the 1970s I think and since then, has been applied to all tournament situations.
However when the Mzones were first developed (and I don't know if Harrington was the first to do this, but rather suspect the first to publish it), then it stands to reason that most of the Mzone theory is based on bricks and mortar tournaments (and tournaments which were being played before the Danish HLAG brand was injected into the game).
Whilst I don't think radical transformation is required for on-line, there are a couple of differences. Firstly, fast blinds and relatively shallow starting stacks typically mean that in the early middle stage, you are not that comfortable with an M of say 22. Secondly, lots of LAG on-line poker players at the start of MTTs tend to accumulate monster stacks very quickly. Unless you keep up with them to the extent that you have fold equity over them later, these are the guys who will in the later stages run over the top of you and/or suckout when you finally do get AA.
Accordingly, at about the same stage of the tournament Marty is at with the AKs hand, I have tended to be thinking of a 25-30M stack (in the early/middle stages) as boarderline yellow, meaning I can still play suited connectors and small pocket pairs in the right circumstances, but I am pretty happy to play for my whole stack with way less than the nuts.
The KK hand, was of course an excellent laydown in the face of what seemed very likely to be a bluff by a big stack. However tournament equity was now much higher and the big green stack again needs to be treated with divine reverence.
These are just my thoughts on the video and I'd be interested to hear what others say.
Friday, August 01, 2008
Friday, July 11, 2008
Polaris Computer defeats Stox Team
Stox Poker could not duplicate the win Phil Laak had over Polaris in season 1.
"This year we were down with two matches to go," said Michael Bowling, leader of the university's computer poker research group. "We were just shaking our heads, wondering how we'd gotten so far down."
But when the numbers from the last matches were on the screen, it became clear that Polaris had caught up and was ensured a win.
"It's hard to describe how good that felt," said Bowling. "As a group, we may not all be great poker players, but all of us really, really want to win."
After last year's loss, the U of A team made some changes to bring their program up to snuff. Of course, when training for any competition, practice is the key. To get ready for the match, Polaris played eight billion games of poker-against itself.
"Polaris has a more sophisticated learning component this year," said Bowling. "It identifies a set of styles of playing that it thinks are effective poker strategies and it can decide which strategy will counter the styles of its opponent. As the games progressed, we were seeing different sides of Polaris. Players watching one match might assume that Polaris plays a certain way, and then they'd face a completely different strategy when they sat down to play."
Polaris faced a number of opponents, including Stoxpoker.com coaches Nick Grudzien and IJay Palansky, as well as contributor Matt Hawrilenko, each of whom can boast more than $1 million USD in lifetime winnings. This year's match ran concurrently with the 2008 World Series of Poker as part of the 2008 Gaming Life Expo at the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino.
The program played the professional players in a game of limit Texas Hold'em poker. Each match consisted of 500 hands, with the cards dealt in duplicate, meaning that Polaris received the same cards in one room that the professional received in the other room and vise versa. The duplicate system was employed to balance out the luck of the cards and emphasize the capabilities of the participants.
"It's possible, given enough computing power, for computers to play 'perfectly,' where over a long enough match, the program cannot lose money," said Bowling. "Humans will always make some mistakes, meaning the program will have an advantage."
The competition wasn't all fun and games, however. Progress in developing artificial intelligence that can excel at poker can lead to some real-world solutions, says Bowling.
"Other games that have been solved by computers, like checkers or chess, are 'perfect information' games, meaning there is a limited number of possible moves and outcomes to be calculated, and each opponent has the same amount of information about those possibilities," he said. "When you look at games where players are asked to make decisions with different amounts of information, missing information, poker is the quintessential game.
"In general, problems in the real world are going to be more like poker than chess. You're not always going to have all the information."
While they are taking time to savour the victory, Polaris' programmers aren't about to rest on their laurels.
"This was really the simplest form of poker," said Bowling. "There's a lot more we can look at, such as playing without betting limits, or playing with more than two opponents. One of the reasons I got excited about this line of research is that it's not just a one-off. It's a really challenging path of research."
The department of computing science at the University of Alberta is one of the foremost institutions in the world to study artificial intelligence. The university's computer poker research group consists of 15 researchers and graduate and undergraduate students whose primary focus is artificial intelligence.
Source: University of Alberta
"This year we were down with two matches to go," said Michael Bowling, leader of the university's computer poker research group. "We were just shaking our heads, wondering how we'd gotten so far down."
But when the numbers from the last matches were on the screen, it became clear that Polaris had caught up and was ensured a win.
"It's hard to describe how good that felt," said Bowling. "As a group, we may not all be great poker players, but all of us really, really want to win."
After last year's loss, the U of A team made some changes to bring their program up to snuff. Of course, when training for any competition, practice is the key. To get ready for the match, Polaris played eight billion games of poker-against itself.
"Polaris has a more sophisticated learning component this year," said Bowling. "It identifies a set of styles of playing that it thinks are effective poker strategies and it can decide which strategy will counter the styles of its opponent. As the games progressed, we were seeing different sides of Polaris. Players watching one match might assume that Polaris plays a certain way, and then they'd face a completely different strategy when they sat down to play."
Polaris faced a number of opponents, including Stoxpoker.com coaches Nick Grudzien and IJay Palansky, as well as contributor Matt Hawrilenko, each of whom can boast more than $1 million USD in lifetime winnings. This year's match ran concurrently with the 2008 World Series of Poker as part of the 2008 Gaming Life Expo at the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino.
The program played the professional players in a game of limit Texas Hold'em poker. Each match consisted of 500 hands, with the cards dealt in duplicate, meaning that Polaris received the same cards in one room that the professional received in the other room and vise versa. The duplicate system was employed to balance out the luck of the cards and emphasize the capabilities of the participants.
"It's possible, given enough computing power, for computers to play 'perfectly,' where over a long enough match, the program cannot lose money," said Bowling. "Humans will always make some mistakes, meaning the program will have an advantage."
The competition wasn't all fun and games, however. Progress in developing artificial intelligence that can excel at poker can lead to some real-world solutions, says Bowling.
"Other games that have been solved by computers, like checkers or chess, are 'perfect information' games, meaning there is a limited number of possible moves and outcomes to be calculated, and each opponent has the same amount of information about those possibilities," he said. "When you look at games where players are asked to make decisions with different amounts of information, missing information, poker is the quintessential game.
"In general, problems in the real world are going to be more like poker than chess. You're not always going to have all the information."
While they are taking time to savour the victory, Polaris' programmers aren't about to rest on their laurels.
"This was really the simplest form of poker," said Bowling. "There's a lot more we can look at, such as playing without betting limits, or playing with more than two opponents. One of the reasons I got excited about this line of research is that it's not just a one-off. It's a really challenging path of research."
The department of computing science at the University of Alberta is one of the foremost institutions in the world to study artificial intelligence. The university's computer poker research group consists of 15 researchers and graduate and undergraduate students whose primary focus is artificial intelligence.
Source: University of Alberta
Monday, July 07, 2008
poker calculator for tournaments proves helpful...
Great videos! | |
| Date: | 3 days ago |
| Message: | HI TK. I've been playing poker for 3 years now, and it's nice to see more players addressing the online poker world more extensively. I'm a (broke) college student, so I haven't been playing as much poker lately as I would like. That will change once my GI Bill money starts rolling in and I can set aside $100 or so a month for playing poker and building a bankroll. I see that you are a strong endorser of Tournament Indicator. I downloaded it for the 48 hour trial verson, and I cashed in 8 out of 10 tournaments, including a final table! I didn't really attribute it to the calculator until the trial was over and I was back to normal. I was amazed when I realized what an effect it had on my game. When I have the money, Tournament indicator will be the first thing I get. I did have a question though; do you know if they allow you to buy the software without signing up for a new account with a poker room? I have accounts on Full Tilt Poker and Poker Stars, and I really don't intend on using any other poker rooms? Anyways, I love the videos and am now a subsciber. I look forward to more great videos. Brent |
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Skill building with your poker calculator.
fjxsMost everybody emulates at least one poker pro and wishes they could play as good as them and have a winning record like they have. That may include tournament cashes, cash games, trophies and bracelets.
In the world of Internet poker however, such thing as don't come as easy as it seems on television. Can you really make the bold kind of plays that Gus Hansen makes with hands like 35 suited? Can you really and down came the king in a multi-table tournament like Phil Hellmuth does? Across the table at your opponent and tell him what his hand is, like Daniel Negreanu?
Sounds easy. Looks easy. It's not easy. Even at a five dollar stake level online. If you want to make those types of moves and make them successful for you, while then you are looking at thousands and thousands and thousands of hands of practice, patients and skill building awareness.
Skill building awareness in online poker comes from looking at your own game and those controversial situations and asking yourself did you really make the right move, and if it was a tournament was this your best opportunity for such a move. One of the best ways for answering these types of tough questions and scenarios that come up game after game is to imagine that one of the professional players mentioned above is looking over your shoulder and acting as your coach. If you're a big enough fan of this game you may very well have very good idea of what they are going to say in regards to how you played your hand.
Can you justify what you did in the hand to one of these world class poker players? Maybe you can. Maybe you can justify the fact that this was the time for aggression, stack play, or fighting back on the maniacal player.
When you execute poker skill building awareness, step out of your own situation and analyze it like you would if you were actually one of your favorite players. You may very well be surprised how quickly you are going to recognize your own errors realizing that you may actually be embarrassed to describe your reasoning for some of the plays.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Bad beats are good... well sometimes.
You see it all the time online. A bad beat or and horrific bad beat send somebody to the rail prematurely. Usually that player was well ahead in the hand, when the chips when in the middle. The next thing you know, the chat box is a rattling with more profanity than you can find on late-night television.
Most new players cannot control their anger when this happens to them. And because the frequency of it seems higher in online poker, frustration is often the mood of the day. Then, anyone at the table can be subject to verbal abuse by the frustrated player, who simply knows no better. The worse the beat, the more likely there is to be an exchange of a heated nature.
A lot of this activity really boils down to experience. The more experienced a player has, the less likely he is to flip out after a bad beat. This is partly because of his understanding of the game, but as well because of his proper bankroll management. In other words, anyone would be more likely to freak out if they lose a pot when they are playing with 50% of their bankroll as opposed to 2% of their bankroll. Think about that. If you know that you cannot realistically avoid bad beats, and that they are truly part of the game that you know and understand, then bankroll management should in fact, prevent any type of bad beats from hurting your emotions too much.
Understanding the backbone of finances and mathematics in online poker can assure in any newfound depth in dealing with losses at the table. No longer should you be emotionally drained to suck outs the way your opponents are, and in fact, you may then find yourself past a point of cosmic return and be able to turn those horrible plays of your opponents into cash in your poker account.
So the next time you are the victim of a bad beat, try and look at it in the way that you got your opponent to do exactly what you wanted them to do. They made a big mistake, you were way ahead, and they won the pot. That is very likely a positive EV play that you've executed perfectly, and even though you did not win it this time, you have actually won.
When you get to the point where you can laugh off the biggest bad beats that goal against you, you are very likely on your way to poker freedom.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Monitoring balance and streak indicators to find a player on tilt.
I'm doing another sit and go demonstration here with tournament indicator, but I wanted to focus on a couple of key indicators in the poker calculator software program, which I don't talk about often enough and that is the balance and street features and those in those two features together can help in determining when a player is on tilt and basically that.
And found that even though she is a solid player. She was on tilt. So that's rather significant, given some of the plays that followed in the tournament where I notice that given her statistical record on SharkScope her record wasn't consistent.
In other words, the styles didn't match as you see in the video. After only 16 hands TI has labeled her gambler. And that's generally not a style of play that wins you as many single tournaments that she has one especially for the early stages. You can see the VPIP here is 38% pre-flop raising 25% aggression factor is infinite - that means she bets out at the flop. Every single time she's in a hand. However, the balance and streak features, well I just wanted to focus on those because they show how many because for instance, if you take the balance indicator that shows how many chips that you and your opponents have lost or gained over the last 10 hands. Now, it's only 10 hands because now although you can just now, although you can adjust the range of hands that you want the balance streak to monitor.
I like to keep it at 10 hands because, really in tournaments, this goes to the premise of knowing what your opponent is feeling at that particular time and place as you know, lying and anti-structures of the tournament and payouts can have a huge effect on the way a player place, because emotions often get in the way. So keeping an eye on the balance indicator may help you make a decision when you are in a confrontational hand with that player, in spite of pot odds that may not normal be considered favorable. In this video you will see an exact example of what I am suggesting.
You can easily envision it yourself. The kind of frustration when you might've been in eight or 10 hands in a row and you just can't do anything you know, you just feel like you're burning chips and that gets frustrating. No doubt about it. My pot odds really dictate that I should fold this, but I'm NOT going to fold it against his player. She's on tilt on SharkScope, and I've been watching her stats here in this tournament - and she's on tilt here, right now. Balance indicates so, streak indicates so, player profiling indicates so, VPIP indicates so, pre-flop or raising indicates that as well. Her aggression factor is infinite so her betting is out of control too.
I call with what is normally a dominated hand, but I am sure I am ahead and my risk is rather limited since I have her way out-stacked too.
And found that even though she is a solid player. She was on tilt. So that's rather significant, given some of the plays that followed in the tournament where I notice that given her statistical record on SharkScope her record wasn't consistent.
In other words, the styles didn't match as you see in the video. After only 16 hands TI has labeled her gambler. And that's generally not a style of play that wins you as many single tournaments that she has one especially for the early stages. You can see the VPIP here is 38% pre-flop raising 25% aggression factor is infinite - that means she bets out at the flop. Every single time she's in a hand. However, the balance and streak features, well I just wanted to focus on those because they show how many because for instance, if you take the balance indicator that shows how many chips that you and your opponents have lost or gained over the last 10 hands. Now, it's only 10 hands because now although you can just now, although you can adjust the range of hands that you want the balance streak to monitor.
I like to keep it at 10 hands because, really in tournaments, this goes to the premise of knowing what your opponent is feeling at that particular time and place as you know, lying and anti-structures of the tournament and payouts can have a huge effect on the way a player place, because emotions often get in the way. So keeping an eye on the balance indicator may help you make a decision when you are in a confrontational hand with that player, in spite of pot odds that may not normal be considered favorable. In this video you will see an exact example of what I am suggesting.
You can easily envision it yourself. The kind of frustration when you might've been in eight or 10 hands in a row and you just can't do anything you know, you just feel like you're burning chips and that gets frustrating. No doubt about it. My pot odds really dictate that I should fold this, but I'm NOT going to fold it against his player. She's on tilt on SharkScope, and I've been watching her stats here in this tournament - and she's on tilt here, right now. Balance indicates so, streak indicates so, player profiling indicates so, VPIP indicates so, pre-flop or raising indicates that as well. Her aggression factor is infinite so her betting is out of control too.
I call with what is normally a dominated hand, but I am sure I am ahead and my risk is rather limited since I have her way out-stacked too.
Friday, June 20, 2008
calculating a Push strategy from Orange MZone
From gadget in the forum:
I don't know if it's good poker math or strategically correct to do so, but I usually push before I'm red mzone. I will wait under certain conditions, but rarely, I want it to hurt as I've mentioned before, so I'm pushing around 12 down to 9 M. Most times I'm only red from embarrassment at not taking my chance earlier and I'm only grey after a stroke.
I agree about Ax though, event hough I don't like it, sometimes it's just the way it goes and from the cut-off onwards it's auto-push.
Has anyone any thoughts about my earlier than 'standard' pushing strategy?
My plan is to get back in with a chance of winning the game or get myself out. My cards become immaterial and I could put my hand over the screen if I wanted to - and sometimes wished I had!. I have found I can steal 2 or 3 times without resistance sometimes. The table dynamic is important here of course; no good doing it on a table of nutters and noobs; and position and previous action, etc etc.
Another thing is that later on players are watching and expect a push from the shorties, so pushing a bit earlier gives them more of a decision, as it reps a bigger hand from a previously tight player. There's lot's more to it of course, but it's been working well for me, especially NTM or just before. However, this is only over a few months, so I'm not stuck to it and of course results are not the point.
I don't know if it's good poker math or strategically correct to do so, but I usually push before I'm red mzone. I will wait under certain conditions, but rarely, I want it to hurt as I've mentioned before, so I'm pushing around 12 down to 9 M. Most times I'm only red from embarrassment at not taking my chance earlier and I'm only grey after a stroke.
I agree about Ax though, event hough I don't like it, sometimes it's just the way it goes and from the cut-off onwards it's auto-push.
Has anyone any thoughts about my earlier than 'standard' pushing strategy?
My plan is to get back in with a chance of winning the game or get myself out. My cards become immaterial and I could put my hand over the screen if I wanted to - and sometimes wished I had!. I have found I can steal 2 or 3 times without resistance sometimes. The table dynamic is important here of course; no good doing it on a table of nutters and noobs; and position and previous action, etc etc.
Another thing is that later on players are watching and expect a push from the shorties, so pushing a bit earlier gives them more of a decision, as it reps a bigger hand from a previously tight player. There's lot's more to it of course, but it's been working well for me, especially NTM or just before. However, this is only over a few months, so I'm not stuck to it and of course results are not the point.
Friday, June 13, 2008
PT/HUD for tournaments not that useful.
From 2+2 below... My feelings exactly in regards to MTT play... but use TI to do the observation for you, esp if multi-tabling.
Re: How many successful MTT players use HUD's/PT in realtime
I used PT/PAHUD a lot. But I don't have the feeling that it helped me that much.
Usually in those large field MTTs you are rarely running into the same players twice. Also, once you have some stats on them, the table breaks.
The other thing I dislike about PT/PAHUD in tournaments is the dynamic of the table. People play differently when they have a bigstack/smallstack. If I have a nice stack and there are no super-shortstacks at my table, I raise like hell.
If half the table has 10xBB or less I even tighten up with a bigstack.
There is also M, Q, streak, tilt factor etc. you could be watching to make this a very useable amount of information from a poker calculator like Tournament Indicator.
What if you play the rebuy hour with a player and 2 weeks later you meet him at the final table only to label him as a maniac according to his stats?
When it comes to MTTs I've changed my opinion from PT/PAHUD to simply being observant and taking notes. I'm looking for players that call down light or can't be bluffed. I take notes about what players limp / min-raise from EP/UTG, if they are calling raises light. What kind of hands do they openshove from EP-MP for 20+ BBs or overshove the flop for 3+ times the pot.
When it comes to cash games there is nothing better than PT/PAHUD. Blinds stay the same, people play (almost always) the same, there is no bubble where people play completely different and so on...
Re: How many successful MTT players use HUD's/PT in realtime
I used PT/PAHUD a lot. But I don't have the feeling that it helped me that much.
Usually in those large field MTTs you are rarely running into the same players twice. Also, once you have some stats on them, the table breaks.
The other thing I dislike about PT/PAHUD in tournaments is the dynamic of the table. People play differently when they have a bigstack/smallstack. If I have a nice stack and there are no super-shortstacks at my table, I raise like hell.
If half the table has 10xBB or less I even tighten up with a bigstack.
There is also M, Q, streak, tilt factor etc. you could be watching to make this a very useable amount of information from a poker calculator like Tournament Indicator.
What if you play the rebuy hour with a player and 2 weeks later you meet him at the final table only to label him as a maniac according to his stats?
When it comes to MTTs I've changed my opinion from PT/PAHUD to simply being observant and taking notes. I'm looking for players that call down light or can't be bluffed. I take notes about what players limp / min-raise from EP/UTG, if they are calling raises light. What kind of hands do they openshove from EP-MP for 20+ BBs or overshove the flop for 3+ times the pot.
When it comes to cash games there is nothing better than PT/PAHUD. Blinds stay the same, people play (almost always) the same, there is no bubble where people play completely different and so on...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
ICM Calculations in Poker Tournaments
Thoughts from the forum in calculating ICM and what to do about it in sit and go tournaments and multi-table tournaments. Phadraeus writes:
Firstly, I have learned that push/fold is not an easy formula. Rather it is a question of judgement and feel, based on the following factors:
M;
Q;
ICM and tournament equity;
Position;
Profiling
tournament type (MTT v STT)
and blind speed (turbo or regular)
A yellow M and very low Q with fast blinds might justify pushing from an M of 12. However mostly, I would think that pushing with that large a stack will be premature.
Mzone is basically a system of risk management. The lower your M, the wider your risk window needs to be opened...that's pretty straight forward...
Now, in a STT (S&G) you also need to balance Mzone with ICM (Independent Chip Model). *Most* STTs involve most or all players being in orange and red Mzone at the end of the tournament. If you are pushing a wide range from yellow M when most of the other players have similar stack sizes, then IMHO you are probably not playing a correct ICM strategy.
In STTs, the push fold mode is partly about M, and partly about what leverage you will have for flop play (and the two are very much inter-related). However, a low M does not necessarily mean that your tournament equity is low. Low M and high tournament equity (i.e on the bubble with 4 players having similar stack sizes) is a time for more conservative play than pure Mzone strategy would suggest. In this case there are two ways of cashing. One by doubling up with the best hand and, Two, by allowing someone else to make a fatal mistake.
Remember that part of ICM strategy is that you profit by staying out of hands where your opponents are playing too loose. This is just another calculation in poker you must keep in mind.
The other functional aspect of the M strategy is post flop play flexibility. With an M of 12, you mostly have enough chips to make a 3xBB raise, manuevre post flop, make meaningful plays and/or get out of the hand and wait for a better spot.
However, with an M of say 5, any pre-flop raise is mostly going to leave you pot committed and/or having not enough chips after you pre-flop raise to put to any meaningful use. Accordingly, you are better off shoving and getting the maximum leverage possible from your stack.
My personal preference for this range in a STT (normal blind speed) is when my M gets to 6.
If blinds are say 100/200 then a 6M stack is 1800. If I raise pre-flop I will be raising 600 (3XBB). If there is a caller to put me into flop play, then the pot will be 1500 compared to my remaining stack of 1200. I therefore do not have enough chips to manoeuvre with relative to the pot size and since the pot is larger than my stack I am pretty well committed to it. Thirdly, if I fold post flop I will be down to an M of 4, where after I have considerable less fold equity for future shoves.
If I double up from an M of 6, I am mostly in the top 3 in a STT (unless I got to an M of 6 due to an early large loss). If I double up from an M of 4 comfort levels are not nearly so great.
So for all those reasons, an M of 6 is my preferred trigger point for STT normal blind speed.
Now, between and M of 6 (my pushing trigger) and an M of 9, there are more than 2 blind levels of folding time. That means if instead of pushing at an M of 9, if you played very tight and folded, waiting for a big hand, you would see between 20 and 30 additional hands before you pulled the trigger. Given that there are 1326 possible hands, seeing an additional 25 hands gives you opportunity to improve your pushing range by around 2%. Might not sound like much, but since a double up from an M of 6 will still put you back in contention for a win, it is pretty well a free 2% (2% is also the margin by which a PP beats over-cards - so it is frequently a percentage that we rely on).
However if you are playing turbos, then instead of 20 to 30 additional hands, you may only see 10 to 15. Now your percentage edge gained by folding is not as great. Also, because turbos force looser play and more frequent all-in moves, you need a larger stack than normal to retain any meaningful fold equity.
Accordingly, pushing with a much higher Mzone strategy seems appropriate for turbo STTs (M=9 to 12) would seem appropriate to me.
Now, for MTTs....
Here, things change quite alot, mostly due to the antes. Before the antes, I tends to adopte the same push/fold approach as Sit and gos (i.e M of 6 = trigger time). (and again, this is also Q dependent - very low table Q an M of 8 may mean you may have very little fold equity depending on stack sizes around you)
However after the antes start, your M drops considerably without a corresponding drop in stack size. This means that you retain significant fold equity well into the red Mzone. Consequently, you can afford to be more selective with your pushes in MTTs and I generally start pulling the trigger with an M of 5 or less. A higher M than that actually gives you opportunity for a significantly greater range of plays, including re-shoves, stop and goes and all-in continuation bets.
I also mentioned position above. This is a difficult and curly part of the whole equation. According to Harrington HOH v2 (which is really mostly applicable to MTTs) position does not matter much for inflection point play (i.e pushing from red Mzone). The reason is that in EP, you are under more deparation to make a move before the blinds swallow a big chunk of your stack. So you are pushing a similar range from EP and LP, just for different reasons.
However in STTs, position is a much more significant factor. First in Vigorish is still king, however ICM considerations demand that position is properly played. Again, because chip values are non-linear near the bubble, ICM is critical. Fundamental to ICM is the fact that if your oponent plays too loose, they hurt themselves, but they hurt you too. The players who benefit (with +ve EV) are the ones sitting back and watching the all-in clash.
In my experience, most players do not play the bubble correctly. When blind pressure is high, most people call a shove with way too wide a range. The sklansky gap concept seems to go out the window and all-in shoves frequently get called by Ax suited, A9+ off-suit, KQ, KJ, QT and any pocket pair. Because of all of that loose play, I tend to prefer to push through as few oponents as possible, meaning I still want genuine strength to push from EP on the bubble, irrespective of M (provided I have meaningful tournament equity in ICM terms).
Lastly, I mentioned profiling. The nightmare situation here is when you have a moster stack loose player on your left. Now you have very little fold equity and pushing from an M of 6 or 12 is not the issue. Rather this issue is that you need solid hand strength to push because you player profiling means you have negligable fold equity.
Similarly, pushing and re-shoving into medium sized stacks is much more important than M trigger points alone. For example, I might re-shove a marginal hand into a medium stack from an M of 12, but I would not push the same hand into a monster stack from an M of 7.
So, that turned into a pretty long post. That is just my thoughts on it anyway. Hope it assists and I'm sure others will have clearer insights...
(Calling out for a post from Raziel on this because his turbo ICM play is probably the best of the forum)
Firstly, I have learned that push/fold is not an easy formula. Rather it is a question of judgement and feel, based on the following factors:
M;
Q;
ICM and tournament equity;
Position;
Profiling
tournament type (MTT v STT)
and blind speed (turbo or regular)
A yellow M and very low Q with fast blinds might justify pushing from an M of 12. However mostly, I would think that pushing with that large a stack will be premature.
Mzone is basically a system of risk management. The lower your M, the wider your risk window needs to be opened...that's pretty straight forward...
Now, in a STT (S&G) you also need to balance Mzone with ICM (Independent Chip Model). *Most* STTs involve most or all players being in orange and red Mzone at the end of the tournament. If you are pushing a wide range from yellow M when most of the other players have similar stack sizes, then IMHO you are probably not playing a correct ICM strategy.
In STTs, the push fold mode is partly about M, and partly about what leverage you will have for flop play (and the two are very much inter-related). However, a low M does not necessarily mean that your tournament equity is low. Low M and high tournament equity (i.e on the bubble with 4 players having similar stack sizes) is a time for more conservative play than pure Mzone strategy would suggest. In this case there are two ways of cashing. One by doubling up with the best hand and, Two, by allowing someone else to make a fatal mistake.
Remember that part of ICM strategy is that you profit by staying out of hands where your opponents are playing too loose. This is just another calculation in poker you must keep in mind.
The other functional aspect of the M strategy is post flop play flexibility. With an M of 12, you mostly have enough chips to make a 3xBB raise, manuevre post flop, make meaningful plays and/or get out of the hand and wait for a better spot.
However, with an M of say 5, any pre-flop raise is mostly going to leave you pot committed and/or having not enough chips after you pre-flop raise to put to any meaningful use. Accordingly, you are better off shoving and getting the maximum leverage possible from your stack.
My personal preference for this range in a STT (normal blind speed) is when my M gets to 6.
If blinds are say 100/200 then a 6M stack is 1800. If I raise pre-flop I will be raising 600 (3XBB). If there is a caller to put me into flop play, then the pot will be 1500 compared to my remaining stack of 1200. I therefore do not have enough chips to manoeuvre with relative to the pot size and since the pot is larger than my stack I am pretty well committed to it. Thirdly, if I fold post flop I will be down to an M of 4, where after I have considerable less fold equity for future shoves.
If I double up from an M of 6, I am mostly in the top 3 in a STT (unless I got to an M of 6 due to an early large loss). If I double up from an M of 4 comfort levels are not nearly so great.
So for all those reasons, an M of 6 is my preferred trigger point for STT normal blind speed.
Now, between and M of 6 (my pushing trigger) and an M of 9, there are more than 2 blind levels of folding time. That means if instead of pushing at an M of 9, if you played very tight and folded, waiting for a big hand, you would see between 20 and 30 additional hands before you pulled the trigger. Given that there are 1326 possible hands, seeing an additional 25 hands gives you opportunity to improve your pushing range by around 2%. Might not sound like much, but since a double up from an M of 6 will still put you back in contention for a win, it is pretty well a free 2% (2% is also the margin by which a PP beats over-cards - so it is frequently a percentage that we rely on).
However if you are playing turbos, then instead of 20 to 30 additional hands, you may only see 10 to 15. Now your percentage edge gained by folding is not as great. Also, because turbos force looser play and more frequent all-in moves, you need a larger stack than normal to retain any meaningful fold equity.
Accordingly, pushing with a much higher Mzone strategy seems appropriate for turbo STTs (M=9 to 12) would seem appropriate to me.
Now, for MTTs....
Here, things change quite alot, mostly due to the antes. Before the antes, I tends to adopte the same push/fold approach as Sit and gos (i.e M of 6 = trigger time). (and again, this is also Q dependent - very low table Q an M of 8 may mean you may have very little fold equity depending on stack sizes around you)
However after the antes start, your M drops considerably without a corresponding drop in stack size. This means that you retain significant fold equity well into the red Mzone. Consequently, you can afford to be more selective with your pushes in MTTs and I generally start pulling the trigger with an M of 5 or less. A higher M than that actually gives you opportunity for a significantly greater range of plays, including re-shoves, stop and goes and all-in continuation bets.
I also mentioned position above. This is a difficult and curly part of the whole equation. According to Harrington HOH v2 (which is really mostly applicable to MTTs) position does not matter much for inflection point play (i.e pushing from red Mzone). The reason is that in EP, you are under more deparation to make a move before the blinds swallow a big chunk of your stack. So you are pushing a similar range from EP and LP, just for different reasons.
However in STTs, position is a much more significant factor. First in Vigorish is still king, however ICM considerations demand that position is properly played. Again, because chip values are non-linear near the bubble, ICM is critical. Fundamental to ICM is the fact that if your oponent plays too loose, they hurt themselves, but they hurt you too. The players who benefit (with +ve EV) are the ones sitting back and watching the all-in clash.
In my experience, most players do not play the bubble correctly. When blind pressure is high, most people call a shove with way too wide a range. The sklansky gap concept seems to go out the window and all-in shoves frequently get called by Ax suited, A9+ off-suit, KQ, KJ, QT and any pocket pair. Because of all of that loose play, I tend to prefer to push through as few oponents as possible, meaning I still want genuine strength to push from EP on the bubble, irrespective of M (provided I have meaningful tournament equity in ICM terms).
Lastly, I mentioned profiling. The nightmare situation here is when you have a moster stack loose player on your left. Now you have very little fold equity and pushing from an M of 6 or 12 is not the issue. Rather this issue is that you need solid hand strength to push because you player profiling means you have negligable fold equity.
Similarly, pushing and re-shoving into medium sized stacks is much more important than M trigger points alone. For example, I might re-shove a marginal hand into a medium stack from an M of 12, but I would not push the same hand into a monster stack from an M of 7.
So, that turned into a pretty long post. That is just my thoughts on it anyway. Hope it assists and I'm sure others will have clearer insights...
(Calling out for a post from Raziel on this because his turbo ICM play is probably the best of the forum)
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Understanding Poker Odds
I was in a hand in a 5/10 limit poker game a few years ago and I called from the button with J9os about after 5 players had limped. Then of course the big blind decides to be clever and min raises. Everyone, including me calls again. 14 bets, $72 in the pot to start the hand in the pot! The flop comes Q84 rainbow.
Gut shot. Man would I fell better if I was at least open-ended. Stupid to be in this hand I thought, bent on my tight aggressive style working out eventually. The small blind puts out a bet. Then 5 consecutive calls when it gets to me. Just another $5 to call... I should do it. I did it, now swelling the pot now $114. All I remember at that point was wondering what the hell they ALL had and how could so many players be that dumb.
It was painful to see the “brick-like” turn card of the 2 of clubs rounding out all four suits on the board. It didn’t stop the under-the-gun wanker from betting $10 now and sure enough NOBODY had folded when it came to me. That added $60 to the pot making it $174 while I pondered what to do. I have a gut shot draw to the nuts with no chance of an opponent outdrawing me to a flush. I needed a 10, but what are the odds of me hitting hit?
One community card left to show, 46 unseen cards, 4 unseen tens. Approximately a 9% chance of hitting the nuts or 11:1. I decided to fold, because I didn’t want to waste any more money and the session was going poorly for me so far, so I didn’t want it get worse here. The odds were so far fetched that my 10 would come, I figured I would just save it for a better spot.
Uhhh..... big mistake.
Of course, the river was a ten as I am sure you figured it out, but my mistake wasn’t because a ten did fall, my mistake was not properly assessing the odds situation. It really did NOT matter what came on the river, I should have been in the hand to see it regardless. My mistake was not fully understanding real poker odds.
It is $10 to call (with no chance of a re-raise behind me) a pot of $174. This is real math, from a real poker hand, using real poker probabilities and had I better understood at the time, I would have realized that sometimes it pays to draw to an inside straight.
The underlying benefit of seeing that huge pot go elsewhere due to my error, forced me to learn the odds of the game and re-evaluate my overall strategy. I can honestly say now, thanks in part to using poker calculators, whether tournament, ring or cash games, I am no longer ignorant of the odds in poker.
Sunday, June 01, 2008
Poker Calculators for Bankrolling management
When Chris Ferguson blogged his Start from Zero Bankrolling Quest, he proved that it could be done. You can start an online poker bankroll from ZERO dollars. The fact that a Full Tilt pro with the reputation of Chris toiling in the penny tables went through the whole process not once, but twice building an account surplus of Ten grand shows that with due diligence and dedication to the task, you can probably do it too.
But only with a lot of self control that is. When playing online poker especially at a site like Full Tilt, that skill far more rare than you might think. Listen, if 75% of online players lose money, then not many of them know how to manage a poker bankroll. Itès not like the information isnèt out there either because it is.
So many players though end up playing above their skill level and even worse, above their bankroll that inevitably, these are the players that end up in that 75% cluster of money losing fish. Yes you are essentially a fish by playing above your bankroll. Chris Ferguson didn’t build his bankroll with magnificent bluffing, power all-in betting, and underground intimidation tactics. Are you kidding me? Have you ever played in the $1 sit and go tournaments? Strategies like thatare sure-fire ways to be searching for reload bonuses.
Chris Jesus Ferguson merely used fundamental poker skills to win as much as he could, but more importantly executed exceptional bankroll management with a strict set of rules that determined what his games of choice would be, and how far he would go in a hand or drawing situaiton.
Bankroll management is then, utterly important to your success online, and now there are software choices to help you keep track of that very aspect of your game. Personal Poker Pal is the latest in this market that with a variety of graphs, reports, and analysis tools can help keep your game moving up and build your bankroll the very best way – using OPM or other people’s money.
What a poker bankroll calculator can do for you is keep your skill set evenly matched with your bankroll. As your knowledge and understanding of the game improves, so then are you rewarded in your bankroll. It’s simple math really. If you jump too far up, you are penalized (eventually) for playing above your head and you take a hit.
However it is impossible to be consistently successful in the modern game without a detailed analysis of performance, highlighting the reasons for success or failure either in particular hands or over a session, with the aim of improving future results. There are many software tools on the market to assist the poker player, but at a price many players are unable (or unwilling) to pay.
You manage money everywhere else in your life don’t you? Unless you are just out having fun and you really don’t care about how much you spend on entertaining yourself playing online poker, then you need to start managing your poker bankroll, just like the pros.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Can I use My Poker Calculator On More Than One table at a Time?
Multi-tabling is one of the major issues when playing on the internet. It is definitely a skill in that it requires 100% concentration. Poker calculators fit very well with multi-tabling because they do a lot of the ground work for you in profiling and odds displays so that you are able to make quicker decisions which keep the flow of the table going while improving your hourly rate as well.
If you are planning to get a poker calculator for multi-tabling though you need one that you know can handle the task because many poker calculators simply cannot monitor more than one table because of something called screen scraper technology. Magic Holdem, Holdem Genius, Calculatem Pro all come to mind as poker calculators that are limited to one table only, because they are based on outdated software programming.
What this means is that the software you choose may very well not be what you are looking for. If you like to play at least two tables at a time, you need holdem indicator or tournament indicator both of which will automatically attach to all your open poker tables, while adding the further benefit of resizing to match your table or mini-sizing so that you can open it whenever you want a more full description of the statistics collected.
Most of the major poker sites allow for resizing now along with cascading or tiling instantly just by clicking a button. Since they are widely offering it, you know that a lot of players are multi-tabling then as then. I might caution you here though that it still takes a lot of skill and knowledge of the game. The more tables you play simultaneously, the more small edges you may have to give up to the table, playing more tight than normal.
In his book titled "Online Ace" Scott Fishman describes multi-tabling as part of the online rounder's game in that it evens out those bad beats you take. He invokes the bad beat variance as simply a part of the game and one of the best ways to get over it, is just open another table or tournament and start again. He regularly has 6, 8 and 10 tables going at one time, across multiple sites and several monitors.
If you think you are up to the challenge you can try a free poker calculator to help with your understanding of odds in poker.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Cake poker and Tournament Indicator.
The tournament poker calculator, Tournament Indicator can be used on Cake Poker which is an available alternative for US players and that is good news given how many sites still don't allow them. Here is a strategy video for a turbo sit and go tournament at Cake Poker.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
MTT change-up.
So you have doubled up a few times and are running good. Several weak players at your table have literally handed you free chips and you have a couple maniacs who you have just up so perfectly where all you need is a medium strength hand to let them have it. You can already envision a good payout in this tournament nearing the bubble when all of a sudden.... table change.
Just when you have reached a complete understanding of your table and knew instinctively what to do in each situation, the announcement comes to let you know, “We are re-balancing tables.... you have been moved”. Gee thanks.
In multi-table tournaments this is the norm, so you really do have to get used to it, but the randomness of it happening can sometime throw you off guard in an unsettling way. Even tilting some players into poor judgment plays as soon as they move.
Well if you are using Tournament Indicator there are some things you can do to alleviate such a stressful occurrence besides of course, taking extra precaution in each hand at your new table.
The first thing you should know is that Tournament Indicator has a history function that can store previous profiles of opponents for up to two years. So when you do change tables make sure you have the history button selected as those tracked opponents will show up with stats from this tournament or any other you may have been in with that player.
Secondly, if the tournament is down to just a few tables, maybe even 5 or 6 and you know you have a stack that is going to take you deeper, why not open all those tables? Tournament Indicator will quickly attach to them and you can be then be collecting important information just like you were at each table. When table do collapse, the players which survived will all be in your history file so sitting at the same table with them isn’t going to be so foreign.
Finally, with your new tables first hand underway, Tournament Indicator automatically displays that player’s current mzone using clear color indicators. Now how is that profiling at a new table? Well tournament conditions can often override someone’s normal playing style, so if your opponent happens to be in red or orange mzone the likeliness of him being aggressive is already more plausible.
Using a poker calculator like Tournament Indicator to its fullest will provide you with critical information that hopefully translates to better decisions. That part is all up to you though.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Controversial hand in tournament play.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2581482
I felt the re-raise from the button was weak, but I don't get why this guy is calling with 56 suited, his looking at a raise, a re-raise and an all in. how can 56 suited possibly look like a decent hand here?
was pushing the right move here? I'm definitely not folding here and I don't really like calling because chances are I'm going to miss the flop and someone is going to stab it.
______________________________________________________
Well pushing AK as a yellow MZone could be a viable play especially if you know who you are pushing into, but it is an aggressive strategy to be sure and you are letting the community cards decide the outcome.
AJ was a bigger mistake to me than the 56s but all three of you were playing the clock. I noticed the blind levels put you imminently close to the first break which is kind of turning point in tournaments for those with the attitude of getting big or getting out. They are abundant in a 5 buck tournament. Gridline seems to be resigned to letting it ride in a big pot, and if he actually did analyze that you two were playing off each other, he stands a good chance of winning... even odds probably!
I am not saying it was a good move no, but once he started calling out of position, I could just hear him saying oh what the fck... I gotta go to sleep anyhow.
As a short stack (none of you were really short though) I would have been in this pot with connectors if my poker odds and position were wonderful using critical analysis, not impatience at getting to bed. So it may be easy to discard what appears to be a weak hand, but sometimes that kind of play is actually a result of a little experience as well.
It is a wonderful thing these low limit buy-ins, and although you let it ride with a strong hand - you still let it ride. You would have lost with AA here too, but shoving it ahead on a GCI hand is where your strategy, not theirs, needs further comprehension.
his is one of those hands where you cannot be faulted, but neither applauded. In that sense I am really not saying you were right or wrong, as I am sure on many occasions I would have done the same thing... but not always.
I think the bigger question is here, why are you asking? I do not mean that in a sarcastic way either, but more were you able to comprehend all of the dynamics that went into the hand AND are you good with it?
As I referred to above, some of your opponents (many actually) are not playing optimally and your reraise/shove commits 2 opponents to the hand at a GCI moment.
Do you really understand that you were shoving into a spot where you were likely behind a pocket pair?
Were you aware of the break/blinds and the effect they have on other yellow/orange stacks?
Did you KNOW both of your opponents?
Did you consider your bankroll and payout structure?
Just some things that may make you think... maybe not.
Another point I might offer is that getting it all in with the best - preflop - is only justification for certain scenarios. I think a lot of players walk away busted from the table deceiving themselves they played great, or at least better than their opponents because they were ahead when all the chips went in.
Now change this hand into another tournament dynamic in that you paid a much larger buy-in like $100, $200 or $1,000 even. Would you be so fast to to make this a GCI hand and say you did the right thing? I am not sure, but you should be. Certainly then, there is reason to contemplate a call, then fold to flop pressure.
Coop replied: I don't think your bankroll should play a role in this decision. First because you should have at least 50 buy-ins for any MTT you play (though 100 is much better and safer) so losing the buy-in will not hurt you, and second because you are still pretty far away from the money. Until then you will have to double up some times and much better opportunities don't come around that often!
You are actually making the case FOR a bankroll decision here Coop, which when building should NEVER be ignored. If he is playing with a good sized roll, then its probably an easier decision to push, if he isnt, he should be thinking how likely it is he can make the money by folding.
I get the impression that he is NOT playing with a bulging bankroll, and you cant just lay that 50 or 100 buy-ins on everyone who plays poker because in a 5 buck tournament, the MAJORITY of players are actually playing over their head if you go by that rule Coop. Not everyone enjoys a bountiful bankroll sir and your book may be right for you, but not others plugging away at the 5 buckers, with 60 bucks in their account!
I also feel thats the real reason why this hand showed up here, and it is one of those defining guidelines about learning the game and making the money and building your poker bankroll tight-ass style, rather than looking for small edges to toss it all in the middle. That in my opinion, is a negative recipe for a growing skill-set.
I think this hand has a lot more to do with his personal comfort level at being this aggressive at this stage. I think there is reason to support a call, OR raise OR fold play here, where other factors, rather than hand strength are more important than most would realize.
I would have likely done the same thing most times, strictly as a result of having no bankroll concern whatsoever, but I dont see this hand a right or wrong play - definitively.
I felt the re-raise from the button was weak, but I don't get why this guy is calling with 56 suited, his looking at a raise, a re-raise and an all in. how can 56 suited possibly look like a decent hand here?
was pushing the right move here? I'm definitely not folding here and I don't really like calling because chances are I'm going to miss the flop and someone is going to stab it.
______________________________________________________
Well pushing AK as a yellow MZone could be a viable play especially if you know who you are pushing into, but it is an aggressive strategy to be sure and you are letting the community cards decide the outcome.
AJ was a bigger mistake to me than the 56s but all three of you were playing the clock. I noticed the blind levels put you imminently close to the first break which is kind of turning point in tournaments for those with the attitude of getting big or getting out. They are abundant in a 5 buck tournament. Gridline seems to be resigned to letting it ride in a big pot, and if he actually did analyze that you two were playing off each other, he stands a good chance of winning... even odds probably!
I am not saying it was a good move no, but once he started calling out of position, I could just hear him saying oh what the fck... I gotta go to sleep anyhow.
As a short stack (none of you were really short though) I would have been in this pot with connectors if my poker odds and position were wonderful using critical analysis, not impatience at getting to bed. So it may be easy to discard what appears to be a weak hand, but sometimes that kind of play is actually a result of a little experience as well.
It is a wonderful thing these low limit buy-ins, and although you let it ride with a strong hand - you still let it ride. You would have lost with AA here too, but shoving it ahead on a GCI hand is where your strategy, not theirs, needs further comprehension.
his is one of those hands where you cannot be faulted, but neither applauded. In that sense I am really not saying you were right or wrong, as I am sure on many occasions I would have done the same thing... but not always.
I think the bigger question is here, why are you asking? I do not mean that in a sarcastic way either, but more were you able to comprehend all of the dynamics that went into the hand AND are you good with it?
As I referred to above, some of your opponents (many actually) are not playing optimally and your reraise/shove commits 2 opponents to the hand at a GCI moment.
Do you really understand that you were shoving into a spot where you were likely behind a pocket pair?
Were you aware of the break/blinds and the effect they have on other yellow/orange stacks?
Did you KNOW both of your opponents?
Did you consider your bankroll and payout structure?
Just some things that may make you think... maybe not.
Another point I might offer is that getting it all in with the best - preflop - is only justification for certain scenarios. I think a lot of players walk away busted from the table deceiving themselves they played great, or at least better than their opponents because they were ahead when all the chips went in.
Now change this hand into another tournament dynamic in that you paid a much larger buy-in like $100, $200 or $1,000 even. Would you be so fast to to make this a GCI hand and say you did the right thing? I am not sure, but you should be. Certainly then, there is reason to contemplate a call, then fold to flop pressure.
Coop replied: I don't think your bankroll should play a role in this decision. First because you should have at least 50 buy-ins for any MTT you play (though 100 is much better and safer) so losing the buy-in will not hurt you, and second because you are still pretty far away from the money. Until then you will have to double up some times and much better opportunities don't come around that often!
You are actually making the case FOR a bankroll decision here Coop, which when building should NEVER be ignored. If he is playing with a good sized roll, then its probably an easier decision to push, if he isnt, he should be thinking how likely it is he can make the money by folding.
I get the impression that he is NOT playing with a bulging bankroll, and you cant just lay that 50 or 100 buy-ins on everyone who plays poker because in a 5 buck tournament, the MAJORITY of players are actually playing over their head if you go by that rule Coop. Not everyone enjoys a bountiful bankroll sir and your book may be right for you, but not others plugging away at the 5 buckers, with 60 bucks in their account!
I also feel thats the real reason why this hand showed up here, and it is one of those defining guidelines about learning the game and making the money and building your poker bankroll tight-ass style, rather than looking for small edges to toss it all in the middle. That in my opinion, is a negative recipe for a growing skill-set.
I think this hand has a lot more to do with his personal comfort level at being this aggressive at this stage. I think there is reason to support a call, OR raise OR fold play here, where other factors, rather than hand strength are more important than most would realize.
I would have likely done the same thing most times, strictly as a result of having no bankroll concern whatsoever, but I dont see this hand a right or wrong play - definitively.
Monday, May 05, 2008
Your Bankrolling Odds in Poker
I played a full slate of sit and go games over the weekend at Full Tilt, Poker Stars, and Cake Poker. I am happy to report that I made upward trends in the bankroll at each website, but not without the usual frustrating bad beats and random coolers getting in the way on occasion.
The good thing about bad beats is that someone has made an error playing against you, so really, they are bound to give their winning back simply because of indisputable laws of poker math. Poor decisions will result, over time, in losing money. However, the poor decisions do not necessarily start at the table. As I found while playing this weekend, table buy-in and competition is your first big decision.
You can view the lobby of a sit and go tournament while it is filling up, so when I play the $20 and $30 buy-ins I sharkscope my opponents before I commit. There was one 9 seated $30 table that had 4 players patiently waiting for 5 more entries. I scoped each one of those players to find they were all sharks with rounder style graphs reaching for the sky – all four of them I am not kidding. Even when I play my best, these guys know how to adapt and exploit my weaknesses to the point it made no sense for me to join that table. In fact, I think at least two of them should have reconsidered playing that sit and go. I mean why seek out the toughest competition? So that was a good decision for me.
In joining other games that day at these levels however, the above example was actually rare. I researched every opponent I had that day and found that the majority of players were playing above their bankroll. How do I know this? Well sharkscope does offer information like ROI%, but it also shows total profit and from there it’s easily discernable that a player sitting down at a 30 buck sit and go table with a lifetime earnings negative $338 simply shouldn’t be there.
At $20 and $30 sit and go tournaments your bankroll should be at least $500, To me a $1,000 is probably more like it, especially if your skills aren’t up to par with a bankroll you may have padded with a “fortunate” win.
Here are some other observations of random players I saw at these tables:
Total profit of $112 over 2,354 games.
Total profit of (negative) -$3,225 over 1,821 games.
Total profit of (negative) -$1,003 over 231 games.
It went on and on. Is it any wonder then that the majority of players lose money playing online poker? You simply are not giving yourself a chance to win in the long run, by playing tables higher than your bankroll allows. Astoundingly, at least 4 of every 9 players at at each table I searched over the weekend were there above their bankroll and long term losers at sit and go tournaments.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Doubling Up in Multi-Table Tournaments
I've read a few people write about the importance of doubling up in MTTs (and quadrupling up in re-buys). This had got me thinking about how you go about doing that and still properly observing GCI (Game Critical Intersects).
I once saw Antonia Esfandiari get knocked out of a tournament early with JJ going all-in after two raises in front of him. he was interviewed after saying that you have double up early or get out. That was a cop-out to a seriously bad rookie error. There is no way Daniel or Chris Ferguson would do that. Even the wild guys like Gus prefer to play it small ball, than letting it ride for a double-up. It’s completely reckless in my opinion, even online, unless you have KK or AA.
Let’s assume that you stay in the yellow or green mzone through this whole process (and ignore triple ups for the time being). Every single time you "double-up", you must be getting all your chips in the middle against another equally or bigger stacked opponent.....and win! If you are only "allowed" to do that when you have "the nuts or close to it" how is it possible to be aiming at double ups without breaching GCI?
I don't think I get the nuts 9 times in a single tournament. Statistically if you are going to be doubling up, then you also need to have the nuts or close to it when an opponent also has a very strong hand....so you should need the nuts a lot more than 9 times. We all know this really just does not happen.
It’s when you get to the Orange MZone that you could, and should start looking to double up. Under an orange mzone condition, a good number of your opponents are going to have you substantially out-stacked. If you are using tournament indicator as your poker calculator, it will show you what mzone you are in throughout the whole tournament. Now that also means your Q, or stack average, is probably relatively low as well.
For example, a tournament I was playing. I was 41 of 64 remaining. I have been in all mzones so far. In Orange and Red I was aiming to double up and have done. In Green and Yellow I have been aiming to control the pot size to avoid getting all my chips in the middle (unless I have the nuts or close to it). But here my Q is getting low, and after a quick glance at the payout structure it’s really time now to look for a situation where I can participate in huge pot with live cards, or get heads up against a maniac with a slight edge. A hand like A5os or KQs might do the trick here.
Just keep in mind the GCI rule of thumb and as you experience in tournaments grows as a result of being so conscious about it, I am kind of thinking, that for those who subscribe to GCI as a governing factor in play choice, then GCI leads to small ball poker in green and yellow and long ball in orange and red. This will ease the stress of making big decision that would otherwise be rather risky.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Full Tilt with Poker Calculator Asisstance
This tournament went pretty well, I sucked out once, but lost two big hands which nearly crippled me, both suck outs for my opponents. I stuck with it, used Tournament Indicator to battle back while picking my spots and turned $2 buck into a $104 tournament win.
Friday, April 18, 2008
More Bankrolling
Using your poker calculator to learn the game is just as important as managing your bankroll to the extent that you simply want it it last as long as it can while getting in as many playable hours as you can. This is critical, while not paying too much attention to your overall profit, but more your overall education pf the game. I think Tournament Indicator and Holdem Indicator really go a long way to helping you pick up the nuances of correct timing and overall strategy.
When you have learned enough of poker, and moved up a few levels and are firmly using OPM, (other players' money) essentially playing free poker - then you can surely adapt an hourly rate strategy into your game, but until then your hourly rate should focus on what you learn, not what you earn.
When you have learned enough of poker, and moved up a few levels and are firmly using OPM, (other players' money) essentially playing free poker - then you can surely adapt an hourly rate strategy into your game, but until then your hourly rate should focus on what you learn, not what you earn.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Loose aggressive profiling with poker calculator
Had this one dude playing with me on 9 man sng at Poker Stars. He donked around enough to basically clear the table for me, then I cleared his dumb asz off the table to take first. But sometimes its not easy to fold in the early stages when you have a a marginal situation against wankers like this. Ceck his stats in the poker calculator while you watch this video.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Poker Spy 2 Review
Poker-Spy2
Poker-Spy has been around for longer than most other poker calculators and quietly ushered in the classification of empirical poker calculators. That being the type that offered you not only poker odds and drawing information while extracting the pertinent data from your poker screen, but also keeping track of you and your opponent’s profiles.
In fact, with Poker-Spy, profiling becomes the main thrust of this software along with hand history data to use during and after your game. While playing, Poker-Spy devised a readable hand history grid that progresses until all action for the most recent 17 hands are displayed with the winner and amount of the pot, while reminding you of your hole cards and those of any opponents that were revealed during play.
Within this grid, you can click on any of those hands (they are numbered for easy reference) that occurred for more detailed betting, position, and pot information. The cross grid panel illuminates by way of background color extra information too, offering up data showing which players were not in the hand, pre-flopped raised, or simply saw the flop. Now all of these grid sections and squares can be a little confusing at first, but I think Poker-Spy does a nice job here of making this data quite clear and understandable. In cash and ring games, it also classifies your opponent into the classic poker player profile grid first described by Dr. Alan Schoonmaker, in his book the Psychology of Poker – as in Loose-Passive and Tight-Aggressive etc.
While hand play is in progress at your table, Poker-Spy created the patent pending Alert System that with tiny, numbered and colored circles adjacent to the players name within the Poker-Spy tracking grid, you can quickly view what Poker-Spy has deemed “questionable” play from your opponents. These visual aids help you quickly discern plays such as blind plays, out-of-position moves, or re-raises perhaps. The extent that such plays are made numerous times is represented within those circles by a corresponding digit clearly visible.
The data itself is further transformed into a database of hand history analysis that you may find yourself poring over to find out things like, what hand you play that has won you the most money, or lost you’re the most money. What position at the table is most or least profitable for you? Your pre-flop and post-flop play is also measured statistically for your own benefit as well. These reports of you and opponents you have played against are managed in the hand summary report, the hand analysis report, and the player report.
In a substantial way, Poker-Spy`s value lays within these reports which have done well by this program in the growing days of online poker. I personally recommended this software nearly two years ago now, but let`s fast forward to Poker-Spy 2.0 which was recently updated with a few new features, albeit hard to find as they were.
I was rather enthused about the update when Poker-Spy contacted me for another review, but when playing with the software, I had to look really closely to actually find the improvements. One of the improvements is a new set of alert indicators that include possible river bluffs made by your opponents. This is a feature that could be useful to new players, although it doesn’t offer any clue as to what your opponent has, the make-up of the board and the tendency of your opponent contribute to this marker.
The other new feature in Poker-Spy is an addition to the extensive reports that includes pre-flop play in many different categories including position, raises and re-raises, and hole card strength.
Although Poker-Spy paved the way for some in-depth analysis of a poker player`s weaknesses, other programs have certainly tripled up on what seems to be a slow, but methodical progression to Poker-Spy. Truly I expected far more for a major update in terms of its poker calculator functions and its potential to work with other software simultaneously. In fact, I now fear that Poker-Spy is suffering from over-programming without sufficient poker-player input.
The designers at Poker-Spy have never really been aggressive marketers of the software and I think this inhibits some of the feedback that they might otherwise be getting from a field of affiliates more attuned to the game and the what the players are interested in - in terms of poker calculators. You can even get a sense for this lack of ambition in the presentation of the Poker-Spy website which really, in its present day mock-up, could be a grand relic of the waybackmachine.
With all that said, Poker-Spy2 has actually dropped to 2 of 4 aces in the Poker Calculator Report value ranking. Not because Poker-Spy2 isn`t better than the original Poker-Spy, but because it`s features and operating program are now clearly behind several other empirical poker calculator products and self analysis software programs.
Monday, April 07, 2008
Practice puttin your opponent on a hand.
Putting your opponent on a hand. This is really something that you absolutely must try to do whether you are in a hand or not. For new players this is critical in skill building. When you eventually get to the point where can put your opponent on a range of hands the majority of times, you will start to see the benefits of this through because you can make more plays back at your opponents. Now it does takes practice. Lots of practice, but with the help of an empirical poker calculator you will be surprised how are able to narrow down an opponent`s hole cards.
You may just feel like jumping for joy when when he turns over the AJos you put him on!
You may just feel like jumping for joy when when he turns over the AJos you put him on!
Friday, April 04, 2008
Getting a feel for your tournament opponents.
It hasn’t been for not trying, because several software products can handle tournament statistics but users of such poker assist software can be easily misled by those results. The reason for this is because betting and activity statistics cannot accurately include other dominant factors in tournaments that demand further analysis.
Let’s take for example you have an opponent you have tracked for 23 hands with a VPIP of 43% and aggression factor of 3.5. Well if these stats were collected during a single table cash game with 9 players, then you have likely run into a maniacal player more commonly identified in ring games as a loose-aggressive (LAG). Now granted 23 hands isn’t a clear indicator, but you at least know he isn’t a mouse.
Now how about if those same statistics were collected during a multi-table tournament? On the face of it, your first impression may be exactly the same – the dude is wild. However if you are looking at these stats in a poker assist software program like Poker Tracker, Poker Prospector or Poker Sharpener, what you may not realize is that none of those programs can tell you the tournament dynamics at the time you collected those statistics.
What difference does that make? Well there are overwhelming factors in tournaments which can turn a mouse into a jackal, and elephant into a mouse, and an eagle into a monkey. Furthermore, changing your overall game plan as a result of these factors can very well be the correct play given the circumstances.
Let’s take for example you have an opponent you have tracked for 23 hands with a VPIP of 43% and aggression factor of 3.5. Well if these stats were collected during a single table cash game with 9 players, then you have likely run into a maniacal player more commonly identified in ring games as a loose-aggressive (LAG). Now granted 23 hands isn’t a clear indicator, but you at least know he isn’t a mouse.
Now how about if those same statistics were collected during a multi-table tournament? On the face of it, your first impression may be exactly the same – the dude is wild. However if you are looking at these stats in a poker assist software program like Poker Tracker, Poker Prospector or Poker Sharpener, what you may not realize is that none of those programs can tell you the tournament dynamics at the time you collected those statistics.
What difference does that make? Well there are overwhelming factors in tournaments which can turn a mouse into a jackal, and elephant into a mouse, and an eagle into a monkey. Furthermore, changing your overall game plan as a result of these factors can very well be the correct play given the circumstances.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Empirical Poker Calculators "Profiling"
A lot of players don't realize the importance of profiling, and I must stress that doing so is a virtual necessity when starting out in online poker. Fortunately there are several excellent, legal, and fair pieces of software that will help you do it.
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If you have an empirical poker calculator, then you likely have a distinct advantage over your competition. Read “likely” because the software can’t do everything for you, it just presents valid information for you to surmise and act upon.
There a lot of players who actually do use a poker calculator with profiling features but yet still have trouble acting on the information in a consistently profitable way. That’s pretty much the same as not having a poker calculator to begin with but either way, not profiling is a costly venture in online poker.
There are several reasons for this, but it all comes down to making the right decisions, for the right odds, at the right time, and against the right opponent(s).
With odds decisions, sometimes that also involves what your opponent is likely to have, and without some profiling data on him, it’s very difficult to narrow his hand down to the range where you can apply effective odds to his hand, his next likely action, and the eventual outcome at the river.
Timing is very critical in poker tournaments, and having your opponent profiled with pertinent data then your decision making may be a lot more clear and concise if you know how this player has acted up to a given point in the tournament. Tournament Indicator, an empirical poker calculator designed for tournaments also profiles opponents as to how they “behave” under different MZone conditions! This would give you a very strong indication if your opponent is making a “move” with a moderate strength hand, given his weak predicament in the tournament.
Picking an opponent to steal a pot from, or make your own move can sometimes keep you in a game, advance you in a tournament, force a smaller stack out of the pot, or even recoup some cash game losses. But picking that opponent to make that move on, is all based on what he is likely to do after you make your play.
We all have some instinct in poker and that is always useful of course. There are some players who just don’t need or want any help. To me, it’s fair to say those players are in the extreme minority, because volume poker these days is battled via monitors and multi-tabling. Multiple distractions, online and off are inherent in playing online poker, so a profiling tool is the least of which you should consider and make the most of when playing, because the competition is getting tougher and tougher all the time.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Bankroll software.
I am currently testing some bankroll software which is loaded with graphics and features that make it easy to keep track of multiple accounts. Although it obviously isn't a poker calculator, it is very much a poker assist software tool that extends beyond online play to help account for your live play bankroll as well.
The team at Tournament Indicator is looking to improve their product by making it resizable to accommodate more of the multi-tabling regulars that use a poker calculator. Currently, Tournament Indicator and Holdem Indicator both attach to as many windows as you can open, even resized, cascaded or tiled poker widows, but the software itself stays the same size.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Cash Game Danger!!!
Cash Games can be dangerous for your Poker Bankroll health. Even those table that have .25-.50 blinds seem cheap, but they really aren't. I mean you have to sit down with 20 bucks at least, and that begs the question of how much is in your bankroll?
Keep in mind these are tables where you are likely to get stacked by a shark who is just waiting for you. Even WSOP champ Chris Ferguson avoided these tables when he was building his roll.
One of the most valuable aspects you learn in using that low buy-in tournament strategy is patience and personal control, whereby in cash games without that skill, it is soooooo much easier to run good, tilt and rebuy, repeat. I have even seen players (friends) lose track of how many rebuys they actually brought to a table while seeking revenge, redemption, and respect. The online poker odds are simply not in your favor. It's a very easy trap to get tangled in while learning. Best to learn where your losses are capped at your buy-in.
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Saturday, March 22, 2008
Tournament Indicator hand. I raised preflop and ended up with 2 callers. The flop don't hit me, however I am pretty confident it missed both them as well.
The both happen to have a VP of 22 and a 9 just don't fit in their starting hand matrix unless it was 99. Without a raise preflop, no reraise to my raise, neither have 99. Nether have AA-TT either as their pfr were low, around 6. If they had a top hand, they would have raised for those preflop. Since they called the pfr they had something. My thought are overcards like AQ, AJ, KQs or a small pp 77-88. 66 and below don't warrant a call for a pfr like I made. So my decision was to cBet as if this hit me or it didn't matter and I had AA-JJ as far as they knew.
How do you guys use tournament indicator or any other poker calculator to determine the likeliness of a cbet. (continuation bet)
At least, this is how I analyzed the situation. Would like to hear what others have to say about it.
The both happen to have a VP of 22 and a 9 just don't fit in their starting hand matrix unless it was 99. Without a raise preflop, no reraise to my raise, neither have 99. Nether have AA-TT either as their pfr were low, around 6. If they had a top hand, they would have raised for those preflop. Since they called the pfr they had something. My thought are overcards like AQ, AJ, KQs or a small pp 77-88. 66 and below don't warrant a call for a pfr like I made. So my decision was to cBet as if this hit me or it didn't matter and I had AA-JJ as far as they knew.
How do you guys use tournament indicator or any other poker calculator to determine the likeliness of a cbet. (continuation bet)
At least, this is how I analyzed the situation. Would like to hear what others have to say about it.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
David Williams joins Real Poker Training
Just watched the first video from David Williams as he has joined Real Poker Training. One of the best online video tutorials really. Hope there is more to come especially in tournaments from him.
If you have ever been interested in joining up for training site, this is the time because if you do so through one of my links, you also get access to the MTT5PAK membership included. RPT has nearly 200 videos covering tournaments and cash games.
If you have ever been interested in joining up for training site, this is the time because if you do so through one of my links, you also get access to the MTT5PAK membership included. RPT has nearly 200 videos covering tournaments and cash games.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Tough fold in a sit and go tournament.
Sometime even in the lower limits, when your poker calculator is basically telling you the right thing to do, you just gotta do it. I folded pocket aces here. Do you want to see more sit and go strategy videos for free?
Poker Tracker and Friends
There comes a point when a piece of software is so popular that other software developers start making software for the original software further extending its value and effectiveness. Poker Tracker is one of those pieces of software that when (and if) you ever figure out how to use all of it's features to the program's full extent, well there are more add-on programs that making it even more powerful.
I say "powerful" because the players that use this program with regularity are generally the sharks that are just waiting for you to land at their table while Poker Tracker is showing them exactly what to expect from you. Is that an advantage? LoL, if you didn't think that was a stupid question.
Anyway the other popular add-on programs are Spade-Eye and IdleMiner which to some degree allow you data-mine all by yourself - without yourself! In fact you don't even need to be at your computer to have this poker calculator software running.
Poker Ace HUD is a screen scraper display that overlays your poker client allowing you to customize the data over/near your opponents playing position on the table. Another nifty Poker Tracker add-on is Poker -EV which helps measure your optimal play when considering pot equity in difficult hand situations.
The makers of Poker Tracker are currently beta testing for version 3, and while the users are not surprisingly thrilled with the new enhancements, it remains to be seen if the learning curve will be any more reasonable.
I say "powerful" because the players that use this program with regularity are generally the sharks that are just waiting for you to land at their table while Poker Tracker is showing them exactly what to expect from you. Is that an advantage? LoL, if you didn't think that was a stupid question.
Anyway the other popular add-on programs are Spade-Eye and IdleMiner which to some degree allow you data-mine all by yourself - without yourself! In fact you don't even need to be at your computer to have this poker calculator software running.
Poker Ace HUD is a screen scraper display that overlays your poker client allowing you to customize the data over/near your opponents playing position on the table. Another nifty Poker Tracker add-on is Poker -EV which helps measure your optimal play when considering pot equity in difficult hand situations.
The makers of Poker Tracker are currently beta testing for version 3, and while the users are not surprisingly thrilled with the new enhancements, it remains to be seen if the learning curve will be any more reasonable.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Using Poker Calculator Tools to Exchange Hand Histories
Your poker calculator may be collecting more information than you know, or even make use of. Other than the normal odds calculations, hand group rankings, and even bet or fold recommendations, hand history is something that a lot of users value most with poker assist software. This is especially true for cash game players.
Hand history research can be a valuable analysis session for you – but of course – learning how to use it and taking that extra time to delve into your collection of hands is somewhat of a measurement of how much you really want to improve.
You can analyze hand histories in two ways. The first is using a program like poker-spy that collects all the bets, opponents, pots, position and results of every hand you play. It then saves them for you to analyze later in a myriad of grids and graphics that shows you in some quick easy steps your playing style and some weaknesses you may have in your game. This isn’t that new but poker-spy also keeps a running tally of the last 17 hands in a grid that also puts out alerts about you and your opponents.
If you use one of the more hard-core hand history analyzers like poker tracker, poker sharpener, or poker prospector, then hand history analysis takes on even deeper implications whereby you start to get a better look at your opponents play as well.
There is also the more difficult issue as identified by some of the major poker sites and their security protocols of hand history exchanging. This is particularly problematic with Poker Tracker where a network of cash game players have built up a database of opponent playing profiles through their own table monitoring, then tabulate that data and make an exchange with another player. Suddenly someone’s hand history file can go from 20,000 hands to 50,000 entrapping that many more players while doing so.
Notwithstanding the fact that this type of activity is completely not allowed by Poker Stars and many other sites, it’s extremely difficult to police, so there is a huge policy challenge there for them.
Among the higher end cash game players this is a common practice, and some forums even have connection facilities to help with such exchanges. So if you are looking to exchange hand histories (files) with another player (computer), let it be known that you are surely entering the dark side, and may find yourself in murky circumstances. So be sure you can trust the source of a file exchange.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Even your Poker Calculator Knows Ace-King is a Drawing Hand.
One of the most common mistakes made by players in the low level buy-in multi-table holdem tournaments online is over-valuing ace king as hole cards. A lot of this has to do with inexperience, impatience and poor judgment, and the fact that ace king just “looks” so darn strong when you look up at your monitor and see them just sitting there for you.
Big slick, as ace king is commonly referred to can be a powerful hand to play aggressively in tournaments but the execution of that aggression requires a whole lot more specificity than you might think.
Now depending on if your AK is suited or not you are looking down at a group 1 or 2 hand as your poker calculator will likely be pointing out to you. If you happen to have Ace King both of hearts, then it is group 1 of the Sklansky hand group rankings. In accordance with that though, careful thought must be taken to know that the groups were categorized with ring game play in mind and also that of the group one hands, AKs is the ONLY drawing hand, where AA, KK, QQ and JJ could be considered “made” hands.
Therein charges your underlying strategy when playing Ace King. It is a drawing hand and during the early stages of a tournament in particular, you should be treating it like most other drawing hands – playing it with at least some help from the flop.
If you always remember that ace king is a drawing hand, it may offer you up a more reasonable strategy for playing it after the flop. Now of course depending on your opponents, the tournament stage, stack size, m zone etc. this could be radically different – even of the flop doesn’t help you. However, there is simply no reason to dump your tournament strategy in an early stage holding AK when the flop come 2-6-9 rainbow.
The utterly ridiculous thing about that very situation is that in the low buy-in multi-table tournaments (and even some high buy-in tournaments), many players will let their tournament stack ride holding AK high when the flop has not helped them. It is purely an unreasonable aggressive move that more often than not will see you on the rail in short order. Sure there are times when you can take the pot down when someone called your pre-flop raise. So what? You made the pot maybe 350 chips when the blinds are still 25 and 50. Now you want to go all in with your remaining 1400 chips to win that 350? It’s not worth it. This is the time to play passively, cautiously, with an eye to preserving your stack, not letting it ride with a drawing hand. If you happen to be using a poker calculator it will be shouting at you that you are likely behind, but players still often ignore this advice.
So when do you push with Ace King? You will get plenty of such opportunities when the blinds are higher, you know your opponents better, and your stack size warrants such a move, until that stage, play it coy and no one will be able to figure your pre-flop call hit two pair on the flop of A-K-9 and you are much more likely to double up with some schmuck being aggressive on you.
Monday, March 10, 2008
making the right read
From JP in the forum:
While it wasn't hard to SEE the maniac playing stupid, his stats were VP71, PFR29, AF2.3, 36sd 60W$sd So not only is he insane, he's lucky.
I used his aggression right before this to milk him and took half his stack
with KK, flop Krags and two hearts, I looked at his stats and knew he woud try and take it so I checked, he bet and I slo called, turn is a blank and for value I bet 1/3 my stack which is about 1/4 the pot and tru to form he shoves. He had 79h, paired the 9 on the turn and has 4 to a flush, no heart on river, whew!
Then this flop hits and he min bets, I looked again at the stats to confirm it was this maniac player from my King set and it was. I'm holding QT and I fold. For him to minbet when he was such a maniac on everything else it was real obvious to me what he had. Had I stayed, the turn gave me a boat and I give him back his chips. Instead I used the player profiling info in Tournament Indicator and observation skills to A)milk a big chunk from him and B)save from giving any of it back.
While it wasn't hard to SEE the maniac playing stupid, his stats were VP71, PFR29, AF2.3, 36sd 60W$sd So not only is he insane, he's lucky.
I used his aggression right before this to milk him and took half his stack
with KK, flop Krags and two hearts, I looked at his stats and knew he woud try and take it so I checked, he bet and I slo called, turn is a blank and for value I bet 1/3 my stack which is about 1/4 the pot and tru to form he shoves. He had 79h, paired the 9 on the turn and has 4 to a flush, no heart on river, whew!
Then this flop hits and he min bets, I looked again at the stats to confirm it was this maniac player from my King set and it was. I'm holding QT and I fold. For him to minbet when he was such a maniac on everything else it was real obvious to me what he had. Had I stayed, the turn gave me a boat and I give him back his chips. Instead I used the player profiling info in Tournament Indicator and observation skills to A)milk a big chunk from him and B)save from giving any of it back.
Friday, March 07, 2008
in the money with my poker calculator
I was in this hand late in a tournament and thought is wa quite interesting in that tournament indicator really helped me make my decision which might be considered over-aggressive. I think this is an example of when you get really comfortable using a poker calculator you aren't second guessing yourself afterwards and it helps you live with yourself even if you loose the hand, like I did this one.
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
From the forum: "Hey, I've trying to understand the relationship with the graphic display of the pot odds -vs- the win odds. I presume if the win odds is higher in relationship to the pot odds graph, it should indicate a call, giving all the other variables involved with that decision. Yea??? or would it be the other way around? just a little confused on how to read the graph at a quick glance from a poker calculator. thanks Jeff"
This is represented grahically with the color bars in Tournament Indicator's win/pot odds display. They mean completely different things and have more or less relevance in given situations.
Your win odds need to be a low ratio represented by a tall scale, and pot odds should be a high rationalso represented wiht a tall graph. (pssst... tall is good)
This is represented grahically with the color bars in Tournament Indicator's win/pot odds display. They mean completely different things and have more or less relevance in given situations.
Your win odds need to be a low ratio represented by a tall scale, and pot odds should be a high rationalso represented wiht a tall graph. (pssst... tall is good)
Friday, February 29, 2008
Qualifying for your free poker calculator.
As you know, to get a free poker calculator you need to create a new poker account and play a qualified number of hands. Here is how a new owner of Tournament Indicator got it free when signing up to a poker site:
"Okay, I made the promises I had made to myself come true, bought a notebook and got rid of my old Win 98 PC. Then I bought TI and had to play 900 flops on everest poker. I played 10 $0.04 sit and go tournaments at once and called every hand to see a flop. It took me 1 hour and a half to accumulate the hands! (I will play some big multi table tournaments there soon, but today I only wanted to to get the hands to be able to play with TI on stars!
I am pretty sure TI will improve my game as I already know the product and its features from the free trial, of course."
I though that was pretty clever! He actually went on to say he finished second in a couple of those tournaments!
"Okay, I made the promises I had made to myself come true, bought a notebook and got rid of my old Win 98 PC. Then I bought TI and had to play 900 flops on everest poker. I played 10 $0.04 sit and go tournaments at once and called every hand to see a flop. It took me 1 hour and a half to accumulate the hands! (I will play some big multi table tournaments there soon, but today I only wanted to to get the hands to be able to play with TI on stars!
I am pretty sure TI will improve my game as I already know the product and its features from the free trial, of course."
I though that was pretty clever! He actually went on to say he finished second in a couple of those tournaments!
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Stop and Go poker strategy
The term "stop and go" refers to a tournament strategy situation in which at least one shortstack is involved and is always executed out of position. You stop preflop by calling and shove on flop ("go").
Examples:
1. You are comfortable and in the BB with 44. Now a pretty short stack (whose range is pretty wide since he is desperately in the needs for blinds)attacks your blind and you figure he will call a push preflop but might not let his stack ride on a missed flop. So you call preflop and push him all-in on flop.
2. You are short and only have time for a few more orbits and your blind gets raised. You think the raiser has a better hand but might fold it on flop if missed. You call, shove on any flop and sometimes take it down.
This only works when you have fold equity left. Don't do it vs someone with only 5M or less. And not against maniacs that will call anyways no matter which cards come on flop!
Examples:
1. You are comfortable and in the BB with 44. Now a pretty short stack (whose range is pretty wide since he is desperately in the needs for blinds)attacks your blind and you figure he will call a push preflop but might not let his stack ride on a missed flop. So you call preflop and push him all-in on flop.
2. You are short and only have time for a few more orbits and your blind gets raised. You think the raiser has a better hand but might fold it on flop if missed. You call, shove on any flop and sometimes take it down.
This only works when you have fold equity left. Don't do it vs someone with only 5M or less. And not against maniacs that will call anyways no matter which cards come on flop!
Friday, February 22, 2008
Poker calculator stats may indicate a weakness.
Tournament Stats too tight? This is from a member of our forum.
78% Ranking at officialpokerrankings.com
17/88 = 19% ITM
-4% ROI
5.7% final tables
More than 90% of those tournaments were 180 player $4 S&Gs on PS.
I am not particularly unhappy with these poker calculator statistics, as I am still learning. But I am finding that with maybe 1 exception, I have been in the red or low orange when getting near the money. I just simply have to double up 2-3 times every time I get NTM. Is it just something that I have to live with, that if I play the kind of game that gets me NTM, that I will usually be short-stacked? Or I wonder if I am missing opportunities to chip up. I noticed that I was more conservative than Marty in some of the examples in the videos during the earlier stages. Is that the problem? I am looking for ways to chip up earlier and not always be hanging on by my fingernails when I get NTM.
My current history stats from Tournament Indicator are (about 75 tournaments including STTs):
VP$IP 16
PFR% 12
AF 2.6
WSD% 6
WSDW% 54
Thanks for any help/comments
78% Ranking at officialpokerrankings.com
17/88 = 19% ITM
-4% ROI
5.7% final tables
More than 90% of those tournaments were 180 player $4 S&Gs on PS.
I am not particularly unhappy with these poker calculator statistics, as I am still learning. But I am finding that with maybe 1 exception, I have been in the red or low orange when getting near the money. I just simply have to double up 2-3 times every time I get NTM. Is it just something that I have to live with, that if I play the kind of game that gets me NTM, that I will usually be short-stacked? Or I wonder if I am missing opportunities to chip up. I noticed that I was more conservative than Marty in some of the examples in the videos during the earlier stages. Is that the problem? I am looking for ways to chip up earlier and not always be hanging on by my fingernails when I get NTM.
My current history stats from Tournament Indicator are (about 75 tournaments including STTs):
VP$IP 16
PFR% 12
AF 2.6
WSD% 6
WSDW% 54
Thanks for any help/comments
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Poker-Spy's new poker calculator.
Is anyone interested in helping review the new version of Poker-Spy. I do a review myself and take into account another point of view too. You can keep the software after your review is submitted. It isn't really a poker calculator but has the most interesting and effecting hand history around. I have liked this software for nearly two years now.
You can contact me on one of my sites if you like. Thanks.
You can contact me on one of my sites if you like. Thanks.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
TAG still wins online tournaments.
Ram Vaswani makes a move with AK but sucks out against AA in FTOPS Main Event. He was right to do it though, and his tight-aggressive stats all the way through were uncharacteristic play on his part.
Tournament Indicator had him pegged as TAG right from the first table. Your poker calculator would pretty much do the same thing too, even if it isn't designed for tournaments.
Tournament Indicator had him pegged as TAG right from the first table. Your poker calculator would pretty much do the same thing too, even if it isn't designed for tournaments.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Poker Calculator feature Update
The new Player Stats Assistant tool is the latest update for Tournament Indicator. It can be found in the upper right corner in the tools menu. But what does it do you may ask?
Let's say you played poker for a while using Tournament Indicator - (still the only poker calculator designed specifically for tournaments!).
You'll get a lot of information for player stats, but then you may want (need) to reinstall your operating system or get a new computer.
You can now use the "backup" function to put your stats information into a db file. You can then copy this db file to a safe place on your hard drive or external drive. After you reinstall TI poker calculators on the new computer or after a system re-installation. You can use "restore" function to restore your old stats information.
If you play on two computers, you can backup the the stats information from one computer and merge it with the stats on the other computer.
The "reset" function will delete all your stats - so be careful with that one. And "query" will display a break down of stats for a particular player - just type in his name to see if you have played with him before.
Let's say you played poker for a while using Tournament Indicator - (still the only poker calculator designed specifically for tournaments!).
You'll get a lot of information for player stats, but then you may want (need) to reinstall your operating system or get a new computer.
You can now use the "backup" function to put your stats information into a db file. You can then copy this db file to a safe place on your hard drive or external drive. After you reinstall TI poker calculators on the new computer or after a system re-installation. You can use "restore" function to restore your old stats information.
If you play on two computers, you can backup the the stats information from one computer and merge it with the stats on the other computer.
The "reset" function will delete all your stats - so be careful with that one. And "query" will display a break down of stats for a particular player - just type in his name to see if you have played with him before.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
New User of Tournament Poker Calculator
Here is a few words from a new user of the only poker calculator designed for use in tournaments, called Tournament Indicator. It combines MZone calculations and profiling indicators along with a few features adapted for rising blinds and depleting stacks.
"Wow, what a tear I have been on using the trial version. I am here to sing the praises of this SW.
I just started playing again in January after a year off, retiring and moving so not enough time to settle down and play. For the month of January, I was about 42% ITM in 9 player S&G on PS, and about 20% on the multi tables.
I played 15 tourneys so far with the TI trial version.
12 5+0.5 S&Gs: ITM 11/12. 5 first place, 1 second place, 5 3rd place, 1 9th place. Had a streak of 8 in a row ITM.
Played 3 4+0.4 180 player tourneys. ITM 2/3. 1 40th place, 1 14th place, and 1 8th place.
I have never had a streak like this, do not expect it to continue of course at this rate, but I do believe that this SW really tuned me up so I did not lose track of my Mzone number as easily. I will not be surprised if I can maintain above 50% ITM on the 1 tables, and above 20% on the multis. Also, the ability to look at the win and pot odds graphically has really helped. If I look back at earlier critical losses they often occurred when I was being too aggressive for my Mzone level, or not being aggressive enough. I was aware of what I needed to do, but would lose track of where I was at. Simply having the meter there tuned me up and made me make better decisions for the situation. I had been using PT and so was always tracking stats on the other players, but I find the Tournament Indicator software to be much more stable and more responsive than the combination of PT and a heads up display.
I played the 25th and 26th on my desktop, and the 29th and 30th on my laptop. The program performed very well on both boxes.
I am of course purchasing the SW. What fun.
Congratulations to whatever genius put this together."
"Wow, what a tear I have been on using the trial version. I am here to sing the praises of this SW.
I just started playing again in January after a year off, retiring and moving so not enough time to settle down and play. For the month of January, I was about 42% ITM in 9 player S&G on PS, and about 20% on the multi tables.
I played 15 tourneys so far with the TI trial version.
12 5+0.5 S&Gs: ITM 11/12. 5 first place, 1 second place, 5 3rd place, 1 9th place. Had a streak of 8 in a row ITM.
Played 3 4+0.4 180 player tourneys. ITM 2/3. 1 40th place, 1 14th place, and 1 8th place.
I have never had a streak like this, do not expect it to continue of course at this rate, but I do believe that this SW really tuned me up so I did not lose track of my Mzone number as easily. I will not be surprised if I can maintain above 50% ITM on the 1 tables, and above 20% on the multis. Also, the ability to look at the win and pot odds graphically has really helped. If I look back at earlier critical losses they often occurred when I was being too aggressive for my Mzone level, or not being aggressive enough. I was aware of what I needed to do, but would lose track of where I was at. Simply having the meter there tuned me up and made me make better decisions for the situation. I had been using PT and so was always tracking stats on the other players, but I find the Tournament Indicator software to be much more stable and more responsive than the combination of PT and a heads up display.
I played the 25th and 26th on my desktop, and the 29th and 30th on my laptop. The program performed very well on both boxes.
I am of course purchasing the SW. What fun.
Congratulations to whatever genius put this together."
Friday, February 15, 2008
Poker Rewards Scam
I found a new poker scam with a site called poker rewards. Shows that they offer a free poker calculator which turns out is manual input piece of crap scam. The site is really a front for a casino site called casino rewards. So stupid how these people try and trap new players to the game, giving them what is surely a horrible experience. besides that they require you to join up with email for their membership, which of course is an invitation for spam.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
The AF Indicator in Poker Calculators
Experienced players often have an aggression factor between 1.5 and 5.0. Holdem Indicator poker calculator shows this as one of the standard barometers. They are the ones who play a lot of small ball poker, but like to take the lead in betting. They are cunning players, and usually will fold if you are willing to take over the betting and make the pot too huge for them to justify playing a marginal hand.
Extra care must be taken though, as they may in fact be waiting for you to so just that. It's called the trap, and the trap usually involves a big pot when they are a clear favorite. It has a lot to do with toying with someones emotions and inexperience in the game.
These players can actually plan out a sequence of events whereby you will be a victim of their more experienced tactics. Keep in mind too that the AF is a contributing indicator to the overall profile of an opponent, so take that into consideration too, as well as .. maybe the guy just having a good run of cards!
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Elephant Man
An "Elephant" or "Calling Station" is a player who is basically in many pots but plays with a lot more passiveness than aggressiveness. These players can be dangerous to your tournament stack because they always improve your late position, pot odds scenarios while generally ignoring their own position and not truly understanding the strength, or lack thereof of their own hole cards.
The players that lose most often to these elephants are Jackals, because Jackals like to bluff and elephants like to call. (See Phil Hellmuth's player guide). When these two profile types clash, a lot of marginal hands become huge pots and the results have a lot more to do with fortune than forethought.
If you see a player with a high WSD% and low or moderate WSDW% then beware - YOU MAY GET STEPPED ON BY AN ELEPHANT! Tournament Indicator poker calculator shows these numbers in the 7th and 8th columns in the profile grid, so take extra time to check them out a little closer and see if you can find an elephant all by yourself.
The players that lose most often to these elephants are Jackals, because Jackals like to bluff and elephants like to call. (See Phil Hellmuth's player guide). When these two profile types clash, a lot of marginal hands become huge pots and the results have a lot more to do with fortune than forethought.
If you see a player with a high WSD% and low or moderate WSDW% then beware - YOU MAY GET STEPPED ON BY AN ELEPHANT! Tournament Indicator poker calculator shows these numbers in the 7th and 8th columns in the profile grid, so take extra time to check them out a little closer and see if you can find an elephant all by yourself.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
data-mining and poker calculator security
Cake Poker is an relatively new network with a small client base that has come up with a clever defence against those pesky data-mining programs like poker-edge, poker sherlock and poker tracker. Cake Poker actually allows you to change your player ID on their site once a week! I think this is a rather brilliant solution, especially for those who are plying their trade in cash games which is where these programs flourish.
Although Poker Tracker isn't a shared data-ming service like the others, but communities of its users often exchange thousands if not hundreds of thousands of hand histories collected and thus use them to their advantage at a later game. This of course goes on outside the reach and of the poker sites, but they do know about it, and want to do something about it.
Wouldn't you want to know more about your opponent like VPIP, PFR and AF if you have NEVER played a hand against him? The answer is the same for most - but it draws the line and Poker Stars, Party Poker and now even Full Tilt Poker are taking a hard line against that type of software because it could potentially makes their playing environment seem unfair.
Although Poker Tracker isn't a shared data-ming service like the others, but communities of its users often exchange thousands if not hundreds of thousands of hand histories collected and thus use them to their advantage at a later game. This of course goes on outside the reach and of the poker sites, but they do know about it, and want to do something about it.
Wouldn't you want to know more about your opponent like VPIP, PFR and AF if you have NEVER played a hand against him? The answer is the same for most - but it draws the line and Poker Stars, Party Poker and now even Full Tilt Poker are taking a hard line against that type of software because it could potentially makes their playing environment seem unfair.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Understanding Implied Odds in Tournaments
All of the online poker calculators, whether they are the mathematical or empirical type, will tell you straight up what your pot odds are in a given situation. In fact, that somewhat simple calculation led to a whole industry being developed to where we are now users of a remarkable breadth of product choice to help out our online poker game.
Given that some players need help with, or enjoy the ease of having their pot odds displayed at every turn then you might imagine that figuring implied odds would be beyond the scope of most recreational players. The thing is, implied odds may have a more immediate and profound impact on making the correct decision in given situations, thus not understanding this concept will surely be costly to your game.
To keep things in perspective, think of your pot odds as “limited” and your implied odds as “unlimited” even though neither of those descriptions is truly accurate they can provide a somewhat measurable thinking guideline to players just starting out. The underlying factors when considering implied odds are the type of game you are playing, your opponents’ stack sizes, and your opponents’ style of play. Let’s have a look at each of these here.
If most of you are playing NL tournaments then there is no constraint on the type of game you are playing that would limit your implied odds in a given hand. However, if the game or tournament happens to be a limit game, then you have to factor how many betting rounds are left and how many opponents you have in the hand. If you are up against just a single opponent in a $2/$4 limit hold’em game, and there is $10 in the pot after the flop, you may only get two big bets out of this opponent if you hit your flush draw. I wrote “may” because you might have a non-capping situation with just the two of you at the river. Again though, if there is a flush on board, this isn’t a likely scenario to count on.
Then again your opponent’s style of play may come into factor here because if you happen to be up against a drunken maniac, sometimes even a heads-up limit situation would have lucrative implied odds. When you are up against an aggressive character in a no- limit situation it becomes all that more “implied”, especially when you become skilled at trapping these types of players.
The highest potential draws usually happen in no-limit games and tournaments, and if you are drawing, you should strive to do it against multiple players, and preferably in position so as not to get caught calling re-raises that tend to be of the “difficult decision” variety. Keep in mind that you should always be aware in these spots of how deep your opponent’s stack is and how much of it you might get in the event your draw comes through.
Let’s say you are drawing for a flush in the middle stages of a tournament and you need to call a bet of T1,000 from a single opponent. There is only T600 in the pot and your opponent only has another T800 left in his stack! That’s quite a raise to call for a very limited scoop. Your implied odds are terrible in that situation. Let’s say though that the pot is T1,000 and your opponent bets T600 this time, and he also has T5,500 in his stack! Better yet, there is someone else in the pot who has called before it came to you and he has a T3,200 stack. Well your odds AND implied odds are both far more lucrative propositions now and these are the times when your selectivity in deciding which pots to do battle in will produce huge long term positive results.
Given that we haven’t discussed other factors of the game like the tournament stage and your mzones, the first hand is nonetheless and easy fold, and the second hand is an easy call.
Sunday, January 14, 2007
Tournament Poker Calculator
Has anyone else ever wondered why someone hasn't come up with such a product yet? I know I have... could be centered around MZone ratings and such... need to think about this porject for sure.
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