Understanding Poker Odds

I was in a hand in a 5/10 limit poker game a few years ago and I called from the button with J9os about after 5 players had limped. Then of course the big blind decides to be clever and min raises. Everyone, including me calls again. 14 bets, $72 in the pot to start the hand in the pot! The flop comes Q84 rainbow.

Gut shot. Man would I fell better if I was at least open-ended. Stupid to be in this hand I thought, bent on my tight aggressive style working out eventually. The small blind puts out a bet. Then 5 consecutive calls when it gets to me. Just another $5 to call... I should do it. I did it, now swelling the pot now $114. All I remember at that point was wondering what the hell they ALL had and how could so many players be that dumb.

It was painful to see the “brick-like” turn card of the 2 of clubs rounding out all four suits on the board. It didn’t stop the under-the-gun wanker from betting $10 now and sure enough NOBODY had folded when it came to me. That added $60 to the pot making it $174 while I pondered what to do. I have a gut shot draw to the nuts with no chance of an opponent outdrawing me to a flush. I needed a 10, but what are the odds of me hitting hit?

One community card left to show, 46 unseen cards, 4 unseen tens. Approximately a 9% chance of hitting the nuts or 11:1. I decided to fold, because I didn’t want to waste any more money and the session was going poorly for me so far, so I didn’t want it get worse here. The odds were so far fetched that my 10 would come, I figured I would just save it for a better spot.

Uhhh..... big mistake.

Of course, the river was a ten as I am sure you figured it out, but my mistake wasn’t because a ten did fall, my mistake was not properly assessing the odds situation. It really did NOT matter what came on the river, I should have been in the hand to see it regardless. My mistake was not fully understanding real poker odds.

It is $10 to call (with no chance of a re-raise behind me) a pot of $174. This is real math, from a real poker hand, using real poker probabilities and had I better understood at the time, I would have realized that sometimes it pays to draw to an inside straight.

The underlying benefit of seeing that huge pot go elsewhere due to my error, forced me to learn the odds of the game and re-evaluate my overall strategy. I can honestly say now, thanks in part to using poker calculators, whether tournament, ring or cash games, I am no longer ignorant of the odds in poker.