ICM Calculations in Poker Tournaments

Thoughts from the forum in calculating ICM and what to do about it in sit and go tournaments and multi-table tournaments. Phadraeus writes:

Firstly, I have learned that push/fold is not an easy formula. Rather it is a question of judgement and feel, based on the following factors:

M;
Q;
ICM and tournament equity;
Position;
Profiling
tournament type (MTT v STT)
and blind speed (turbo or regular)

A yellow M and very low Q with fast blinds might justify pushing from an M of 12. However mostly, I would think that pushing with that large a stack will be premature.

Mzone is basically a system of risk management. The lower your M, the wider your risk window needs to be opened...that's pretty straight forward...

Now, in a STT (S&G) you also need to balance Mzone with ICM (Independent Chip Model). *Most* STTs involve most or all players being in orange and red Mzone at the end of the tournament. If you are pushing a wide range from yellow M when most of the other players have similar stack sizes, then IMHO you are probably not playing a correct ICM strategy.

In STTs, the push fold mode is partly about M, and partly about what leverage you will have for flop play (and the two are very much inter-related). However, a low M does not necessarily mean that your tournament equity is low. Low M and high tournament equity (i.e on the bubble with 4 players having similar stack sizes) is a time for more conservative play than pure Mzone strategy would suggest. In this case there are two ways of cashing. One by doubling up with the best hand and, Two, by allowing someone else to make a fatal mistake.

Remember that part of ICM strategy is that you profit by staying out of hands where your opponents are playing too loose. This is just another calculation in poker you must keep in mind.

The other functional aspect of the M strategy is post flop play flexibility. With an M of 12, you mostly have enough chips to make a 3xBB raise, manuevre post flop, make meaningful plays and/or get out of the hand and wait for a better spot.

However, with an M of say 5, any pre-flop raise is mostly going to leave you pot committed and/or having not enough chips after you pre-flop raise to put to any meaningful use. Accordingly, you are better off shoving and getting the maximum leverage possible from your stack.

My personal preference for this range in a STT (normal blind speed) is when my M gets to 6.

If blinds are say 100/200 then a 6M stack is 1800. If I raise pre-flop I will be raising 600 (3XBB). If there is a caller to put me into flop play, then the pot will be 1500 compared to my remaining stack of 1200. I therefore do not have enough chips to manoeuvre with relative to the pot size and since the pot is larger than my stack I am pretty well committed to it. Thirdly, if I fold post flop I will be down to an M of 4, where after I have considerable less fold equity for future shoves.

If I double up from an M of 6, I am mostly in the top 3 in a STT (unless I got to an M of 6 due to an early large loss). If I double up from an M of 4 comfort levels are not nearly so great.

So for all those reasons, an M of 6 is my preferred trigger point for STT normal blind speed.

Now, between and M of 6 (my pushing trigger) and an M of 9, there are more than 2 blind levels of folding time. That means if instead of pushing at an M of 9, if you played very tight and folded, waiting for a big hand, you would see between 20 and 30 additional hands before you pulled the trigger. Given that there are 1326 possible hands, seeing an additional 25 hands gives you opportunity to improve your pushing range by around 2%. Might not sound like much, but since a double up from an M of 6 will still put you back in contention for a win, it is pretty well a free 2% (2% is also the margin by which a PP beats over-cards - so it is frequently a percentage that we rely on).

However if you are playing turbos, then instead of 20 to 30 additional hands, you may only see 10 to 15. Now your percentage edge gained by folding is not as great. Also, because turbos force looser play and more frequent all-in moves, you need a larger stack than normal to retain any meaningful fold equity.

Accordingly, pushing with a much higher Mzone strategy seems appropriate for turbo STTs (M=9 to 12) would seem appropriate to me.

Now, for MTTs....

Here, things change quite alot, mostly due to the antes. Before the antes, I tends to adopte the same push/fold approach as Sit and gos (i.e M of 6 = trigger time). (and again, this is also Q dependent - very low table Q an M of 8 may mean you may have very little fold equity depending on stack sizes around you)

However after the antes start, your M drops considerably without a corresponding drop in stack size. This means that you retain significant fold equity well into the red Mzone. Consequently, you can afford to be more selective with your pushes in MTTs and I generally start pulling the trigger with an M of 5 or less. A higher M than that actually gives you opportunity for a significantly greater range of plays, including re-shoves, stop and goes and all-in continuation bets.

I also mentioned position above. This is a difficult and curly part of the whole equation. According to Harrington HOH v2 (which is really mostly applicable to MTTs) position does not matter much for inflection point play (i.e pushing from red Mzone). The reason is that in EP, you are under more deparation to make a move before the blinds swallow a big chunk of your stack. So you are pushing a similar range from EP and LP, just for different reasons.

However in STTs, position is a much more significant factor. First in Vigorish is still king, however ICM considerations demand that position is properly played. Again, because chip values are non-linear near the bubble, ICM is critical. Fundamental to ICM is the fact that if your oponent plays too loose, they hurt themselves, but they hurt you too. The players who benefit (with +ve EV) are the ones sitting back and watching the all-in clash.

In my experience, most players do not play the bubble correctly. When blind pressure is high, most people call a shove with way too wide a range. The sklansky gap concept seems to go out the window and all-in shoves frequently get called by Ax suited, A9+ off-suit, KQ, KJ, QT and any pocket pair. Because of all of that loose play, I tend to prefer to push through as few oponents as possible, meaning I still want genuine strength to push from EP on the bubble, irrespective of M (provided I have meaningful tournament equity in ICM terms).

Lastly, I mentioned profiling. The nightmare situation here is when you have a moster stack loose player on your left. Now you have very little fold equity and pushing from an M of 6 or 12 is not the issue. Rather this issue is that you need solid hand strength to push because you player profiling means you have negligable fold equity.

Similarly, pushing and re-shoving into medium sized stacks is much more important than M trigger points alone. For example, I might re-shove a marginal hand into a medium stack from an M of 12, but I would not push the same hand into a monster stack from an M of 7.

So, that turned into a pretty long post. That is just my thoughts on it anyway. Hope it assists and I'm sure others will have clearer insights...

(Calling out for a post from Raziel on this because his turbo ICM play is probably the best of the forum)

Understanding Poker Odds

I was in a hand in a 5/10 limit poker game a few years ago and I called from the button with J9os about after 5 players had limped. Then of course the big blind decides to be clever and min raises. Everyone, including me calls again. 14 bets, $72 in the pot to start the hand in the pot! The flop comes Q84 rainbow.

Gut shot. Man would I fell better if I was at least open-ended. Stupid to be in this hand I thought, bent on my tight aggressive style working out eventually. The small blind puts out a bet. Then 5 consecutive calls when it gets to me. Just another $5 to call... I should do it. I did it, now swelling the pot now $114. All I remember at that point was wondering what the hell they ALL had and how could so many players be that dumb.

It was painful to see the “brick-like” turn card of the 2 of clubs rounding out all four suits on the board. It didn’t stop the under-the-gun wanker from betting $10 now and sure enough NOBODY had folded when it came to me. That added $60 to the pot making it $174 while I pondered what to do. I have a gut shot draw to the nuts with no chance of an opponent outdrawing me to a flush. I needed a 10, but what are the odds of me hitting hit?

One community card left to show, 46 unseen cards, 4 unseen tens. Approximately a 9% chance of hitting the nuts or 11:1. I decided to fold, because I didn’t want to waste any more money and the session was going poorly for me so far, so I didn’t want it get worse here. The odds were so far fetched that my 10 would come, I figured I would just save it for a better spot.

Uhhh..... big mistake.

Of course, the river was a ten as I am sure you figured it out, but my mistake wasn’t because a ten did fall, my mistake was not properly assessing the odds situation. It really did NOT matter what came on the river, I should have been in the hand to see it regardless. My mistake was not fully understanding real poker odds.

It is $10 to call (with no chance of a re-raise behind me) a pot of $174. This is real math, from a real poker hand, using real poker probabilities and had I better understood at the time, I would have realized that sometimes it pays to draw to an inside straight.

The underlying benefit of seeing that huge pot go elsewhere due to my error, forced me to learn the odds of the game and re-evaluate my overall strategy. I can honestly say now, thanks in part to using poker calculators, whether tournament, ring or cash games, I am no longer ignorant of the odds in poker.

Poker Calculators for Bankrolling management

When Chris Ferguson blogged his Start from Zero Bankrolling Quest, he proved that it could be done. You can start an online poker bankroll from ZERO dollars. The fact that a Full Tilt pro with the reputation of Chris toiling in the penny tables went through the whole process not once, but twice building an account surplus of Ten grand shows that with due diligence and dedication to the task, you can probably do it too.

But only with a lot of self control that is. When playing online poker especially at a site like Full Tilt, that skill far more rare than you might think. Listen, if 75% of online players lose money, then not many of them know how to manage a poker bankroll. Itès not like the information isnèt out there either because it is.

So many players though end up playing above their skill level and even worse, above their bankroll that inevitably, these are the players that end up in that 75% cluster of money losing fish. Yes you are essentially a fish by playing above your bankroll. Chris Ferguson didn’t build his bankroll with magnificent bluffing, power all-in betting, and underground intimidation tactics. Are you kidding me? Have you ever played in the $1 sit and go tournaments? Strategies like thatare sure-fire ways to be searching for reload bonuses.

Chris Jesus Ferguson merely used fundamental poker skills to win as much as he could, but more importantly executed exceptional bankroll management with a strict set of rules that determined what his games of choice would be, and how far he would go in a hand or drawing situaiton.

Bankroll management is then, utterly important to your success online, and now there are software choices to help you keep track of that very aspect of your game. Personal Poker Pal is the latest in this market that with a variety of graphs, reports, and analysis tools can help keep your game moving up and build your bankroll the very best way – using OPM or other people’s money.

What a poker bankroll calculator can do for you is keep your skill set evenly matched with your bankroll. As your knowledge and understanding of the game improves, so then are you rewarded in your bankroll. It’s simple math really. If you jump too far up, you are penalized (eventually) for playing above your head and you take a hit.

However it is impossible to be consistently successful in the modern game without a detailed analysis of performance, highlighting the reasons for success or failure either in particular hands or over a session, with the aim of improving future results. There are many software tools on the market to assist the poker player, but at a price many players are unable (or unwilling) to pay.

You manage money everywhere else in your life don’t you? Unless you are just out having fun and you really don’t care about how much you spend on entertaining yourself playing online poker, then you need to start managing your poker bankroll, just like the pros.

Can I use My Poker Calculator On More Than One table at a Time?

Multi-tabling is one of the major issues when playing on the internet. It is definitely a skill in that it requires 100% concentration. Poker calculators fit very well with multi-tabling because they do a lot of the ground work for you in profiling and odds displays so that you are able to make quicker decisions which keep the flow of the table going while improving your hourly rate as well.

If you are planning to get a poker calculator for multi-tabling though you need one that you know can handle the task because many poker calculators simply cannot monitor more than one table because of something called screen scraper technology. Magic Holdem, Holdem Genius, Calculatem Pro all come to mind as poker calculators that are limited to one table only, because they are based on outdated software programming.

What this means is that the software you choose may very well not be what you are looking for. If you like to play at least two tables at a time, you need holdem indicator or tournament indicator both of which will automatically attach to all your open poker tables, while adding the further benefit of resizing to match your table or mini-sizing so that you can open it whenever you want a more full description of the statistics collected.

Most of the major poker sites allow for resizing now along with cascading or tiling instantly just by clicking a button. Since they are widely offering it, you know that a lot of players are multi-tabling then as then. I might caution you here though that it still takes a lot of skill and knowledge of the game. The more tables you play simultaneously, the more small edges you may have to give up to the table, playing more tight than normal.

In his book titled "Online Ace" Scott Fishman describes multi-tabling as part of the online rounder's game in that it evens out those bad beats you take. He invokes the bad beat variance as simply a part of the game and one of the best ways to get over it, is just open another table or tournament and start again. He regularly has 6, 8 and 10 tables going at one time, across multiple sites and several monitors.

If you think you are up to the challenge you can try a free poker calculator to help with your understanding of odds in poker.

Cake poker and Tournament Indicator.

The tournament poker calculator, Tournament Indicator can be used on Cake Poker which is an available alternative for US players and that is good news given how many sites still don't allow them. Here is a strategy video for a turbo sit and go tournament at Cake Poker.

MTT change-up.

So you have doubled up a few times and are running good. Several weak players at your table have literally handed you free chips and you have a couple maniacs who you have just up so perfectly where all you need is a medium strength hand to let them have it. You can already envision a good payout in this tournament nearing the bubble when all of a sudden.... table change.

Just when you have reached a complete understanding of your table and knew instinctively what to do in each situation, the announcement comes to let you know, “We are re-balancing tables.... you have been moved”. Gee thanks.

In multi-table tournaments this is the norm, so you really do have to get used to it, but the randomness of it happening can sometime throw you off guard in an unsettling way. Even tilting some players into poor judgment plays as soon as they move.

Well if you are using Tournament Indicator there are some things you can do to alleviate such a stressful occurrence besides of course, taking extra precaution in each hand at your new table.

The first thing you should know is that Tournament Indicator has a history function that can store previous profiles of opponents for up to two years. So when you do change tables make sure you have the history button selected as those tracked opponents will show up with stats from this tournament or any other you may have been in with that player.

Secondly, if the tournament is down to just a few tables, maybe even 5 or 6 and you know you have a stack that is going to take you deeper, why not open all those tables? Tournament Indicator will quickly attach to them and you can be then be collecting important information just like you were at each table. When table do collapse, the players which survived will all be in your history file so sitting at the same table with them isn’t going to be so foreign.

Finally, with your new tables first hand underway, Tournament Indicator automatically displays that player’s current mzone using clear color indicators. Now how is that profiling at a new table? Well tournament conditions can often override someone’s normal playing style, so if your opponent happens to be in red or orange mzone the likeliness of him being aggressive is already more plausible.

Using a poker calculator like Tournament Indicator to its fullest will provide you with critical information that hopefully translates to better decisions. That part is all up to you though.

Controversial hand in tournament play.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2581482

I felt the re-raise from the button was weak, but I don't get why this guy is calling with 56 suited, his looking at a raise, a re-raise and an all in. how can 56 suited possibly look like a decent hand here?

was pushing the right move here? I'm definitely not folding here and I don't really like calling because chances are I'm going to miss the flop and someone is going to stab it.

______________________________________________________

Well pushing AK as a yellow MZone could be a viable play especially if you know who you are pushing into, but it is an aggressive strategy to be sure and you are letting the community cards decide the outcome.

AJ was a bigger mistake to me than the 56s but all three of you were playing the clock. I noticed the blind levels put you imminently close to the first break which is kind of turning point in tournaments for those with the attitude of getting big or getting out. They are abundant in a 5 buck tournament. Gridline seems to be resigned to letting it ride in a big pot, and if he actually did analyze that you two were playing off each other, he stands a good chance of winning... even odds probably!

I am not saying it was a good move no, but once he started calling out of position, I could just hear him saying oh what the fck... I gotta go to sleep anyhow.

As a short stack (none of you were really short though) I would have been in this pot with connectors if my poker odds and position were wonderful using critical analysis, not impatience at getting to bed. So it may be easy to discard what appears to be a weak hand, but sometimes that kind of play is actually a result of a little experience as well.

It is a wonderful thing these low limit buy-ins, and although you let it ride with a strong hand - you still let it ride. You would have lost with AA here too, but shoving it ahead on a GCI hand is where your strategy, not theirs, needs further comprehension.

his is one of those hands where you cannot be faulted, but neither applauded. In that sense I am really not saying you were right or wrong, as I am sure on many occasions I would have done the same thing... but not always.

I think the bigger question is here, why are you asking? I do not mean that in a sarcastic way either, but more were you able to comprehend all of the dynamics that went into the hand AND are you good with it?

As I referred to above, some of your opponents (many actually) are not playing optimally and your reraise/shove commits 2 opponents to the hand at a GCI moment.

Do you really understand that you were shoving into a spot where you were likely behind a pocket pair?

Were you aware of the break/blinds and the effect they have on other yellow/orange stacks?

Did you KNOW both of your opponents?

Did you consider your bankroll and payout structure?

Just some things that may make you think... maybe not.

Another point I might offer is that getting it all in with the best - preflop - is only justification for certain scenarios. I think a lot of players walk away busted from the table deceiving themselves they played great, or at least better than their opponents because they were ahead when all the chips went in.

Now change this hand into another tournament dynamic in that you paid a much larger buy-in like $100, $200 or $1,000 even. Would you be so fast to to make this a GCI hand and say you did the right thing? I am not sure, but you should be. Certainly then, there is reason to contemplate a call, then fold to flop pressure.

Coop replied: I don't think your bankroll should play a role in this decision. First because you should have at least 50 buy-ins for any MTT you play (though 100 is much better and safer) so losing the buy-in will not hurt you, and second because you are still pretty far away from the money. Until then you will have to double up some times and much better opportunities don't come around that often!

You are actually making the case FOR a bankroll decision here Coop, which when building should NEVER be ignored. If he is playing with a good sized roll, then its probably an easier decision to push, if he isnt, he should be thinking how likely it is he can make the money by folding.

I get the impression that he is NOT playing with a bulging bankroll, and you cant just lay that 50 or 100 buy-ins on everyone who plays poker because in a 5 buck tournament, the MAJORITY of players are actually playing over their head if you go by that rule Coop. Not everyone enjoys a bountiful bankroll sir and your book may be right for you, but not others plugging away at the 5 buckers, with 60 bucks in their account!

I also feel thats the real reason why this hand showed up here, and it is one of those defining guidelines about learning the game and making the money and building your poker bankroll tight-ass style, rather than looking for small edges to toss it all in the middle. That in my opinion, is a negative recipe for a growing skill-set.

I think this hand has a lot more to do with his personal comfort level at being this aggressive at this stage. I think there is reason to support a call, OR raise OR fold play here, where other factors, rather than hand strength are more important than most would realize.

I would have likely done the same thing most times, strictly as a result of having no bankroll concern whatsoever, but I dont see this hand a right or wrong play - definitively.

Your Bankrolling Odds in Poker

I played a full slate of sit and go games over the weekend at Full Tilt, Poker Stars, and Cake Poker. I am happy to report that I made upward trends in the bankroll at each website, but not without the usual frustrating bad beats and random coolers getting in the way on occasion.

The good thing about bad beats is that someone has made an error playing against you, so really, they are bound to give their winning back simply because of indisputable laws of poker math. Poor decisions will result, over time, in losing money. However, the poor decisions do not necessarily start at the table. As I found while playing this weekend, table buy-in and competition is your first big decision.

You can view the lobby of a sit and go tournament while it is filling up, so when I play the $20 and $30 buy-ins I sharkscope my opponents before I commit. There was one 9 seated $30 table that had 4 players patiently waiting for 5 more entries. I scoped each one of those players to find they were all sharks with rounder style graphs reaching for the sky – all four of them I am not kidding. Even when I play my best, these guys know how to adapt and exploit my weaknesses to the point it made no sense for me to join that table. In fact, I think at least two of them should have reconsidered playing that sit and go. I mean why seek out the toughest competition? So that was a good decision for me.

In joining other games that day at these levels however, the above example was actually rare. I researched every opponent I had that day and found that the majority of players were playing above their bankroll. How do I know this? Well sharkscope does offer information like ROI%, but it also shows total profit and from there it’s easily discernable that a player sitting down at a 30 buck sit and go table with a lifetime earnings negative $338 simply shouldn’t be there.

At $20 and $30 sit and go tournaments your bankroll should be at least $500, To me a $1,000 is probably more like it, especially if your skills aren’t up to par with a bankroll you may have padded with a “fortunate” win.

Here are some other observations of random players I saw at these tables:

Total profit of $112 over 2,354 games.

Total profit of (negative) -$3,225 over 1,821 games.

Total profit of (negative) -$1,003 over 231 games.

It went on and on. Is it any wonder then that the majority of players lose money playing online poker? You simply are not giving yourself a chance to win in the long run, by playing tables higher than your bankroll allows. Astoundingly, at least 4 of every 9 players at at each table I searched over the weekend were there above their bankroll and long term losers at sit and go tournaments.

Doubling Up in Multi-Table Tournaments

I've read a few people write about the importance of doubling up in MTTs (and quadrupling up in re-buys). This had got me thinking about how you go about doing that and still properly observing GCI (Game Critical Intersects).

I once saw Antonia Esfandiari get knocked out of a tournament early with JJ going all-in after two raises in front of him. he was interviewed after saying that you have double up early or get out. That was a cop-out to a seriously bad rookie error. There is no way Daniel or Chris Ferguson would do that. Even the wild guys like Gus prefer to play it small ball, than letting it ride for a double-up. It’s completely reckless in my opinion, even online, unless you have KK or AA.

Let’s assume that you stay in the yellow or green mzone through this whole process (and ignore triple ups for the time being). Every single time you "double-up", you must be getting all your chips in the middle against another equally or bigger stacked opponent.....and win! If you are only "allowed" to do that when you have "the nuts or close to it" how is it possible to be aiming at double ups without breaching GCI?

I don't think I get the nuts 9 times in a single tournament. Statistically if you are going to be doubling up, then you also need to have the nuts or close to it when an opponent also has a very strong hand....so you should need the nuts a lot more than 9 times. We all know this really just does not happen.

It’s when you get to the Orange MZone that you could, and should start looking to double up. Under an orange mzone condition, a good number of your opponents are going to have you substantially out-stacked. If you are using tournament indicator as your poker calculator, it will show you what mzone you are in throughout the whole tournament. Now that also means your Q, or stack average, is probably relatively low as well.

For example, a tournament I was playing. I was 41 of 64 remaining. I have been in all mzones so far. In Orange and Red I was aiming to double up and have done. In Green and Yellow I have been aiming to control the pot size to avoid getting all my chips in the middle (unless I have the nuts or close to it). But here my Q is getting low, and after a quick glance at the payout structure it’s really time now to look for a situation where I can participate in huge pot with live cards, or get heads up against a maniac with a slight edge. A hand like A5os or KQs might do the trick here.

Just keep in mind the GCI rule of thumb and as you experience in tournaments grows as a result of being so conscious about it, I am kind of thinking, that for those who subscribe to GCI as a governing factor in play choice, then GCI leads to small ball poker in green and yellow and long ball in orange and red. This will ease the stress of making big decision that would otherwise be rather risky.

Full Tilt with Poker Calculator Asisstance

This tournament went pretty well, I sucked out once, but lost two big hands which nearly crippled me, both suck outs for my opponents. I stuck with it, used Tournament Indicator to battle back while picking my spots and turned $2 buck into a $104 tournament win.

More Bankrolling

Using your poker calculator to learn the game is just as important as managing your bankroll to the extent that you simply want it it last as long as it can while getting in as many playable hours as you can. This is critical, while not paying too much attention to your overall profit, but more your overall education pf the game. I think Tournament Indicator and Holdem Indicator really go a long way to helping you pick up the nuances of correct timing and overall strategy.

When you have learned enough of poker, and moved up a few levels and are firmly using OPM, (other players' money) essentially playing free poker - then you can surely adapt an hourly rate strategy into your game, but until then your hourly rate should focus on what you learn, not what you earn.

Loose aggressive profiling with poker calculator

Had this one dude playing with me on 9 man sng at Poker Stars. He donked around enough to basically clear the table for me, then I cleared his dumb asz off the table to take first. But sometimes its not easy to fold in the early stages when you have a a marginal situation against wankers like this. Ceck his stats in the poker calculator while you watch this video.

Poker Spy 2 Review

Poker-Spy2

Poker-Spy has been around for longer than most other poker calculators and quietly ushered in the classification of empirical poker calculators. That being the type that offered you not only poker odds and drawing information while extracting the pertinent data from your poker screen, but also keeping track of you and your opponent’s profiles.

In fact, with Poker-Spy, profiling becomes the main thrust of this software along with hand history data to use during and after your game. While playing, Poker-Spy devised a readable hand history grid that progresses until all action for the most recent 17 hands are displayed with the winner and amount of the pot, while reminding you of your hole cards and those of any opponents that were revealed during play.

Within this grid, you can click on any of those hands (they are numbered for easy reference) that occurred for more detailed betting, position, and pot information. The cross grid panel illuminates by way of background color extra information too, offering up data showing which players were not in the hand, pre-flopped raised, or simply saw the flop. Now all of these grid sections and squares can be a little confusing at first, but I think Poker-Spy does a nice job here of making this data quite clear and understandable. In cash and ring games, it also classifies your opponent into the classic poker player profile grid first described by Dr. Alan Schoonmaker, in his book the Psychology of Poker – as in Loose-Passive and Tight-Aggressive etc.

While hand play is in progress at your table, Poker-Spy created the patent pending Alert System that with tiny, numbered and colored circles adjacent to the players name within the Poker-Spy tracking grid, you can quickly view what Poker-Spy has deemed “questionable” play from your opponents. These visual aids help you quickly discern plays such as blind plays, out-of-position moves, or re-raises perhaps. The extent that such plays are made numerous times is represented within those circles by a corresponding digit clearly visible.

The data itself is further transformed into a database of hand history analysis that you may find yourself poring over to find out things like, what hand you play that has won you the most money, or lost you’re the most money. What position at the table is most or least profitable for you? Your pre-flop and post-flop play is also measured statistically for your own benefit as well. These reports of you and opponents you have played against are managed in the hand summary report, the hand analysis report, and the player report.

In a substantial way, Poker-Spy`s value lays within these reports which have done well by this program in the growing days of online poker. I personally recommended this software nearly two years ago now, but let`s fast forward to Poker-Spy 2.0 which was recently updated with a few new features, albeit hard to find as they were.

I was rather enthused about the update when Poker-Spy contacted me for another review, but when playing with the software, I had to look really closely to actually find the improvements. One of the improvements is a new set of alert indicators that include possible river bluffs made by your opponents. This is a feature that could be useful to new players, although it doesn’t offer any clue as to what your opponent has, the make-up of the board and the tendency of your opponent contribute to this marker.

The other new feature in Poker-Spy is an addition to the extensive reports that includes pre-flop play in many different categories including position, raises and re-raises, and hole card strength.

Although Poker-Spy paved the way for some in-depth analysis of a poker player`s weaknesses, other programs have certainly tripled up on what seems to be a slow, but methodical progression to Poker-Spy. Truly I expected far more for a major update in terms of its poker calculator functions and its potential to work with other software simultaneously. In fact, I now fear that Poker-Spy is suffering from over-programming without sufficient poker-player input.

The designers at Poker-Spy have never really been aggressive marketers of the software and I think this inhibits some of the feedback that they might otherwise be getting from a field of affiliates more attuned to the game and the what the players are interested in - in terms of poker calculators. You can even get a sense for this lack of ambition in the presentation of the Poker-Spy website which really, in its present day mock-up, could be a grand relic of the waybackmachine.

With all that said, Poker-Spy2 has actually dropped to 2 of 4 aces in the Poker Calculator Report value ranking. Not because Poker-Spy2 isn`t better than the original Poker-Spy, but because it`s features and operating program are now clearly behind several other empirical poker calculator products and self analysis software programs.

Practice puttin your opponent on a hand.

Putting your opponent on a hand. This is really something that you absolutely must try to do whether you are in a hand or not. For new players this is critical in skill building. When you eventually get to the point where can put your opponent on a range of hands the majority of times, you will start to see the benefits of this through because you can make more plays back at your opponents. Now it does takes practice. Lots of practice, but with the help of an empirical poker calculator you will be surprised how are able to narrow down an opponent`s hole cards.

You may just feel like jumping for joy when when he turns over the AJos you put him on!

Getting a feel for your tournament opponents.

It hasn’t been for not trying, because several software products can handle tournament statistics but users of such poker assist software can be easily misled by those results. The reason for this is because betting and activity statistics cannot accurately include other dominant factors in tournaments that demand further analysis.

Let’s take for example you have an opponent you have tracked for 23 hands with a VPIP of 43% and aggression factor of 3.5. Well if these stats were collected during a single table cash game with 9 players, then you have likely run into a maniacal player more commonly identified in ring games as a loose-aggressive (LAG). Now granted 23 hands isn’t a clear indicator, but you at least know he isn’t a mouse.

Now how about if those same statistics were collected during a multi-table tournament? On the face of it, your first impression may be exactly the same – the dude is wild. However if you are looking at these stats in a poker assist software program like Poker Tracker, Poker Prospector or Poker Sharpener, what you may not realize is that none of those programs can tell you the tournament dynamics at the time you collected those statistics.

What difference does that make? Well there are overwhelming factors in tournaments which can turn a mouse into a jackal, and elephant into a mouse, and an eagle into a monkey. Furthermore, changing your overall game plan as a result of these factors can very well be the correct play given the circumstances.

Empirical Poker Calculators "Profiling"

A lot of players don't realize the importance of profiling, and I must stress that doing so is a virtual necessity when starting out in online poker. Fortunately there are several excellent, legal, and fair pieces of software that will help you do it.

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If you have an empirical poker calculator, then you likely have a distinct advantage over your competition. Read “likely” because the software can’t do everything for you, it just presents valid information for you to surmise and act upon.

There a lot of players who actually do use a poker calculator with profiling features but yet still have trouble acting on the information in a consistently profitable way. That’s pretty much the same as not having a poker calculator to begin with but either way, not profiling is a costly venture in online poker.

There are several reasons for this, but it all comes down to making the right decisions, for the right odds, at the right time, and against the right opponent(s).

With odds decisions, sometimes that also involves what your opponent is likely to have, and without some profiling data on him, it’s very difficult to narrow his hand down to the range where you can apply effective odds to his hand, his next likely action, and the eventual outcome at the river.

Timing is very critical in poker tournaments, and having your opponent profiled with pertinent data then your decision making may be a lot more clear and concise if you know how this player has acted up to a given point in the tournament. Tournament Indicator, an empirical poker calculator designed for tournaments also profiles opponents as to how they “behave” under different MZone conditions! This would give you a very strong indication if your opponent is making a “move” with a moderate strength hand, given his weak predicament in the tournament.

Picking an opponent to steal a pot from, or make your own move can sometimes keep you in a game, advance you in a tournament, force a smaller stack out of the pot, or even recoup some cash game losses. But picking that opponent to make that move on, is all based on what he is likely to do after you make your play.

We all have some instinct in poker and that is always useful of course. There are some players who just don’t need or want any help. To me, it’s fair to say those players are in the extreme minority, because volume poker these days is battled via monitors and multi-tabling. Multiple distractions, online and off are inherent in playing online poker, so a profiling tool is the least of which you should consider and make the most of when playing, because the competition is getting tougher and tougher all the time.

Bankroll software.

I am currently testing some bankroll software which is loaded with graphics and features that make it easy to keep track of multiple accounts. Although it obviously isn't a poker calculator, it is very much a poker assist software tool that extends beyond online play to help account for your live play bankroll as well.

The team at Tournament Indicator is looking to improve their product by making it resizable to accommodate more of the multi-tabling regulars that use a poker calculator. Currently, Tournament Indicator and Holdem Indicator both attach to as many windows as you can open, even resized, cascaded or tiled poker widows, but the software itself stays the same size.

Cash Game Danger!!!

Cash Games can be dangerous for your Poker Bankroll health. Even those table that have .25-.50 blinds seem cheap, but they really aren't. I mean you have to sit down with 20 bucks at least, and that begs the question of how much is in your bankroll?

Keep in mind these are tables where you are likely to get stacked by a shark who is just waiting for you. Even WSOP champ Chris Ferguson avoided these tables when he was building his roll.

One of the most valuable aspects you learn in using that low buy-in tournament strategy is patience and personal control, whereby in cash games without that skill, it is soooooo much easier to run good, tilt and rebuy, repeat. I have even seen players (friends) lose track of how many rebuys they actually brought to a table while seeking revenge, redemption, and respect. The online poker odds are simply not in your favor. It's a very easy trap to get tangled in while learning. Best to learn where your losses are capped at your buy-in.
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Tournament Indicator hand. I raised preflop and ended up with 2 callers. The flop don't hit me, however I am pretty confident it missed both them as well.

The both happen to have a VP of 22 and a 9 just don't fit in their starting hand matrix unless it was 99. Without a raise preflop, no reraise to my raise, neither have 99. Nether have AA-TT either as their pfr were low, around 6. If they had a top hand, they would have raised for those preflop. Since they called the pfr they had something. My thought are overcards like AQ, AJ, KQs or a small pp 77-88. 66 and below don't warrant a call for a pfr like I made. So my decision was to cBet as if this hit me or it didn't matter and I had AA-JJ as far as they knew.

How do you guys use tournament indicator or any other poker calculator to determine the likeliness of a cbet. (continuation bet)

At least, this is how I analyzed the situation. Would like to hear what others have to say about it.